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Non-Archimedean analogs of Markov quasimeasures and stochastic processes are investigated. Thery are used for the development of stochastic antiderivations. The non-Archimedean analog of the It$\hat o$ formula is proved.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling and predicting a class of functional time series with application to energy markets, based on fully observed, noise-free functional data. Traders in such contexts conceive profitable…
Given a semi-Markov law, using an additional parameter, we consider a family of stochastic flows corresponding to that law. Then we suitably select a particular flow, for which we obtain expressions of the meeting and merging probabilities…
In this paper, we consider the stability analysis of large-scale distributed networked control systems with random communication delays between linearly interconnected subsystems. The stability analysis is performed in the Markov jump…
We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
Timed automata are the formal model for real-time systems. Extensions with discrete probabilistic branching have been considered in the literature and successfully applied. Probabilistic timed automata (PTA) do require all branching…
Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
We study the $\beta$ analogue of the nonintersecting Poisson random walks. We derive a stochastic differential equation of the Stieltjes transform of the empirical measure process, which can be viewed as a dynamical version of the…
In this article we consider the estimation of static parameters for partially observed diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, when one only has access to time-discretized solutions of…
This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…
Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…
We study a stochastic version of the classical Becker-D\"oring model, a well-known kinetic model for cluster formation that predicts the existence of a long-lived metastable state before a thermodynamically unfavorable nucleation occurs,…
A new extension of the sub-fractional Brownian motion, and thus of the Brownian motion, is introduced. It is a linear combination of a finite number of sub-fractional Brownian motions, that we have chosen to call the mixed sub-fractional…
Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…
The asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of the nonparametric estimator of the transition probabilities of a Markov renewal chain is proved, and is applied to that of other nonparametric estimators involved with the associated…
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…
Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…