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Here we revisit the classic problem of linear quadratic estimation, i.e. estimating the trajectory of a linear dynamical system from noisy measurements. The celebrated Kalman filter gives an optimal estimator when the measurement noise is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-12 Sitan Chen , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra , Morris Yau

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-05 Michael Busch , Jeff Moehlis

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

In data assimilation, an ensemble provides a way to propagate the probability density of a system described by a nonlinear prediction model. Although a large ensemble size is required for statistical accuracy, the ensemble size is typically…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Bosu Choi , Yoonsang Lee

Many robotic sensor estimation problems can characterized in terms of nonlinear measurement systems. These systems are contaminated with noise and may be underdetermined from a single observation. In order to get reliable estimation…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Greg Hager , Max Mintz

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

To obtain the accurate transient states of the big scale natural gas pipeline networks under the bad data and non-zero mean noises conditions, a robust Kalman filter-based dynamic state estimation method is proposed using the linearized gas…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-10 Liang Chen , Peng Jin , Jing Yang , Yang Li , Yi Song

In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Pierre E. Jacob , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Finding the governing equations from data by sparse optimization has become a popular approach to deterministic modeling of dynamical systems. Considering the physical situations where the data can be imperfect due to disturbances and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-05 Zheng-Meng Zhai , Valerio Lucarini , Ying-Cheng Lai

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Melina A. Freitag

The understanding of nonlinear, high dimensional flows, e.g, atmospheric and ocean flows, is critical to address the impacts of global climate change. Data Assimilation techniques combine physical models and observational data, often in a…

Using a perturbation technique, we derive a new approximate filtering and smoothing methodology generalizing along different directions several existing approaches to robust filtering based on the score and the Hessian matrix of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 Giuseppe Buccheri , Giacomo Bormetti , Fulvio Corsi , Fabrizio Lillo

Machine learning has opened new frontiers in purely data-driven algorithms for data assimilation in, and for forecasting of, dynamical systems; the resulting methods are showing some promise. However, in contrast to model-driven algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Edoardo Calvello , Elizabeth Carlson , Nikola Kovachki , Michael N. Manta , Andrew M. Stuart

A hybrid data assimilation algorithm is developed for complex dynamical systems with partial observations. The method starts with applying a spectral decomposition to the entire spatiotemporal fields, followed by creating a machine learning…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-12-27 Changhong Mou , Leslie M. Smith , Nan Chen

In this paper, we focus on sensor placement in linear dynamic estimation, where the objective is to place a small number of sensors in a system of interdependent states so to design an estimator with a desired estimation performance. In…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Vasileios Tzoumas , Ali Jadbabaie , George J. Pappas

Smoothing is an estimation technique that takes into account both past and future observations, and can be more accurate than filtering alone. In this Letter, a quantum theory of smoothing is constructed using a time-symmetric formalism,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-07-14 Mankei Tsang

Real-world measurement noise in applications like robotics is often correlated in time, but we typically assume i.i.d. Gaussian noise for filtering. We propose general Gaussian Processes as a non-parametric model for correlated measurement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-25 Vince Kurtz , Hai Lin

We extend the linear mixed-effects state model to accommodate the correlated individuals and investigate its parameter and state estimation based on disturbance smoothing in this paper. For parameter estimation, EM and score based…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-03 Jie Zhou , Aiping Tang

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

In this paper, a new filter model called set-membership Kalman filter for nonlinear state estimation problems was designed, where both random and unknown but bounded uncertainties were considered simultaneously in the discrete-time system.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-09 Ligang Sun , Hamza Alkhatib , Boris Kargoll , Vladik Kreinovich , Ingo Neumann