English
Related papers

Related papers: Bayesian Neural Network Ensembles

200 papers

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have developed into useful tools for probabilistic modelling due to recent advances in variational inference enabling large scale BNNs. However, BNNs remain brittle and hard to train, especially: (1) when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-24 Felix McGregor , Arnu Pretorius , Johan du Preez , Steve Kroon

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Andrey Malinin , Liudmila Prokhorenkova , Aleksei Ustimenko

End-to-end trained neural networks (NNs) are a compelling approach to autonomous vehicle control because of their ability to learn complex tasks without manual engineering of rule-based decisions. However, challenging road conditions,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-24 Alexander Amini , Ava Soleimany , Sertac Karaman , Daniela Rus

To advance the transparency of learning machines such as Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), the field of Explainable AI (XAI) was established to provide interpretations of DNNs' predictions. While different explanation techniques exist, a popular…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently received increasing attention for their ability to provide well-calibrated posterior uncertainties. However, model selection---even choosing the number of nodes---remains an open question.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Soumya Ghosh , Jiayu Yao , Finale Doshi-Velez

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Evgenii Tsymbalov , Sergei Makarychev , Alexander Shapeev , Maxim Panov

We develop a novel deep learning method for uncertainty quantification in stochastic partial differential equations based on Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). A BNN efficiently learns the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Jeahan Jung , Minseok Choi

Quantifying the uncertainty of supervised learning models plays an important role in making more reliable predictions. Epistemic uncertainty, which usually is due to insufficient knowledge about the model, can be reduced by collecting more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-27 Xinlei Zhou , Han Liu , Farhad Pourpanah , Tieyong Zeng , Xizhao Wang

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

Bayesian interpretations of neural network have a long history, dating back to early work in the 1990's and have recently regained attention because of their desirable properties like uncertainty estimation, model robustness and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jack K Fitzsimons , Sebastian M Schmon , Stephen J Roberts

Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-19 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-19 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Despite its long history, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and variational training remain underused in practice: standard Gaussian posteriors misalign with network geometry, KL terms can be brittle in high dimensions, and implementations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Carlos Stein Brito

Time series forecasting is a challenging problem particularly when a time series expresses multiple seasonality, nonlinear trend and varying variance. In this work, to forecast complex time series, we propose ensemble learning which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Grzegorz Dudek

Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Philipp Wagner , Xinyang Wu , Marco F. Huber

interpretable, and well understood models that are routinely employed even though, as is revealed through prior and posterior predictive checks, these can poorly characterise the spatial heterogeneity in the underlying process of interest.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-08 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Michael D. Kaminski , Ba-Hien Tran , Maurizio Filippone , Noel Cressie

We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Alexios Gidiotis , Grigorios Tsoumakas