Related papers: A Residual Bootstrap for Conditional Expected Shor…
The bootstrap variance estimate is widely used in semiparametric inferences. However, its theoretical validity is a well known open problem. In this paper, we provide a {\em first} theoretical study on the bootstrap moment estimates in…
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where $p<n$ but $p/n$ is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals,…
This paper proposes valid inference tools, based on self-normalization, in time series expected shortfall regressions and, as a corollary, also in quantile regressions. Extant methods for such time series regressions, based on a bootstrap…
Inference and testing in general point process models such as the Hawkes model is predominantly based on asymptotic approximations for likelihood-based estimators and tests. As an alternative, and to improve finite sample performance, this…
Despite their deterministic nature, dynamical systems often exhibit seemingly random behaviour. Consequently, a dynamical system is usually represented by a probabilistic model of which the unknown parameters must be estimated using…
Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…
In this short paper, we study the simulation of a large system of stochastic processes subject to a common driving noise and fast mean-reverting stochastic volatilities. This model may be used to describe the firm values of a large pool of…
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
This paper provides a specification test for semiparametric models with nonparametrically generated regressors. Such variables are not observed by the researcher but are nonparametrically identified and estimable. Applications of the test…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…
In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…
In this paper we propose an autoregressive wild bootstrap method to construct confidence bands around a smooth deterministic trend. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and does not require any adjustments in the presence of missing…
We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…
This paper investigates the accuracy of bootstrap-based bias correction of persistence measures for long memory fractionally integrated processes. The bootstrap method is based on the semi-parametric sieve approach, with the dynamics in the…
Motivated by the equations of cross valuation adjustments (XVAs) in the realistic case where capital is deemed fungible as a source of funding for variation margin, we introduce a simulation/regression scheme for a class of anticipated…
This article is concerned with proving the consistency of Efron's (1981) bootstrap for the Kaplan-Meier estimator on the whole support of a survival function. While other works address the asymptotic Gaussianity of the estimator itself…