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Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

Confidence calibration is a major concern when applying artificial neural networks in safety-critical applications. Since most research in this area has focused on classification in the past, confidence calibration in the scope of object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Franziska Schwaiger , Maximilian Henne , Fabian Küppers , Felippe Schmoeller Roza , Karsten Roscher , Anselm Haselhoff

Multi-modal object detection in autonomous driving has achieved great breakthroughs due to the usage of fusing complementary information from different sensors. The calibration in fusion between sensors such as LiDAR and camera was always…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Zhihang Song , Dingyi Yao , Ruibo Ming , Lihui Peng , Danya Yao , Yi Zhang

Quantifying uncertainty of predictions has been identified as one way to develop more trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) models beyond conventional reporting of performance metrics. When considering their role in a clinical decision…

Camouflaged Object Detection (COD), the task of identifying objects concealed within their environments, has seen rapid growth due to its wide range of practical applications. A key step toward developing trustworthy COD systems is the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Ziyue Yang , Kehan Wang , Yuhang Ming , Yong Peng , Han Yang , Qiong Chen , Wanzeng Kong

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Jinxu Lin , Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Busra Asan , Abdullah Akgül , Alper Unal , Melih Kandemir , Gozde Unal

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

To assure that an autonomous car is driving safely on public roads, its object detection module should not only work correctly, but show its prediction confidence as well. Previous object detectors driven by deep learning do not explicitly…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-09-10 Di Feng , Lars Rosenbaum , Klaus Dietmayer

Bounding-box regression is a popular technique to refine or predict localization boxes in recent object detection approaches. Typically, bounding-box regressors are trained to regress from either region proposals or fixed anchor boxes to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-16 Seungkwan Lee , Suha Kwak , Minsu Cho

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Eugène Berta , Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Recent works have shown that deep neural networks can achieve super-human performance in a wide range of image classification tasks in the medical imaging domain. However, these works have primarily focused on classification accuracy,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Gongbo Liang , Yu Zhang , Xiaoqin Wang , Nathan Jacobs

Calibration is commonly evaluated by comparing model confidence with its empirical correctness, implicitly treating reliability as a function of the confidence score alone. However, this view can hide substantial structure: models may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Katarzyna Kobalczyk , Mihaela van der Schaar

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

We propose a novel object localization methodology with the purpose of boosting the localization accuracy of state-of-the-art object detection systems. Our model, given a search region, aims at returning the bounding box of an object of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-04-08 Spyros Gidaris , Nikos Komodakis

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-30 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

We present an approach for safe motion planning under robot state and environment (obstacle and landmark location) uncertainties. To this end, we first develop an approach that accounts for the landmark uncertainties during robot…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Antony Thomas , Fulvio Mastrogiovanni , Marco Baglietto

Probabilities or confidence values produced by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models often do not reflect their true accuracy, with some models being under or over confident in their predictions. For example, if a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Richard Oliver Lane
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