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The probability prediction of multivariate time series is a notoriously challenging but practical task. On the one hand, the challenge is how to effectively capture the cross-series correlations between interacting time series, to achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Shibo Feng , Chunyan Miao , Ke Xu , Jiaxiang Wu , Pengcheng Wu , Yang Zhang , Peilin Zhao

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GPLVM) is a popular probabilistic method used for nonlinear dimension reduction, matrix factorization, and state-space modeling. Inference for GPLVMs is computationally tractable only when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-16 Michael Minyi Zhang , Gregory W. Gundersen , Barbara E. Engelhardt

A new variational mode decomposition (VMD) based deep learning approach is proposed in this paper for time series forecasting problem. Firstly, VMD is adopted to decompose the original time series into several sub-signals. Then, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-25 Guowei Zhang , Tao Ren , Yifan Yang

Asynchronous event sequences are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. In this work, we tackle the task of predicting the next event (given a history), and how this prediction changes with the passage of time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-09 Marin Biloš , Bertrand Charpentier , Stephan Günnemann

The Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM) is often used to cluster data when the number of clusters is unknown. One main DPGMM inference paradigm relies on sampling. Here we consider a known state-of-art sampler (proposed by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Vlad Winter , Or Dinari , Oren Freifeld

Time series analysis is critical for emerging net- work intelligent control and management functions. However, existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Yufeng Xin , Ethan Fan

While Gaussian processes (GPs) are the method of choice for regression tasks, they also come with practical difficulties, as inference cost scales cubic in time and quadratic in memory. In this paper, we introduce a natural and expressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-13 Martin Trapp , Robert Peharz , Carl E. Rasmussen , Franz Pernkopf

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Shiyu Wang , Haixu Wu , Xiaoming Shi , Tengge Hu , Huakun Luo , Lintao Ma , James Y. Zhang , Jun Zhou

Time series generation is a crucial research topic in the area of decision-making systems, which can be particularly important in domains like autonomous driving, healthcare, and, notably, robotics. Recent approaches focus on learning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Jian Qian , Bingyu Xie , Biao Wan , Minhao Li , Miao Sun , Patrick Yin Chiang

The evolution of communities in dynamic (time-varying) network data is a prominent topic of interest. A popular approach to understanding these dynamic networks is to embed the dyadic relations into a latent metric space. While methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Joshua Daniel Loyal , Yuguo Chen

For data assumed to come from a finite mixture with an unknown number of components, it has become common to use Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) not only for density estimation, but also for inferences about the number of components. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-15 Jeffrey W. Miller , Matthew T. Harrison

A Bayesian lattice filtering and smoothing approach is proposed for fast and accurate modeling and inference in multivariate non-stationary time series. This approach offers computational feasibility and interpretable time-frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Wenjie Zhao , Raquel Prado

Modeling the evolution of high-dimensional systems from limited snapshot observations at irregular time points poses a significant challenge in quantitative biology and related fields. Traditional approaches often rely on dimensionality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Justin Lee , Behnaz Moradijamei , Heman Shakeri

Several machine learning problems arising in natural language processing can be modeled as a sequence labeling problem. We provide Gaussian process models based on pseudo-likelihood approximation to perform sequence labeling. Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-22 P. K. Srijith , P. Balamurugan , Shirish Shevade

Gaussian process-based latent variable models are flexible and theoretically grounded tools for nonlinear dimension reduction, but generalizing to non-Gaussian data likelihoods within this nonlinear framework is statistically challenging.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-22 Gregory W. Gundersen , Michael Minyi Zhang , Barbara E. Engelhardt

A generalized Gaussian process model (GGPM) is a unifying framework that encompasses many existing Gaussian process (GP) models, such as GP regression, classification, and counting. In the GGPM framework, the observation likelihood of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-28 Lifeng Shang , Antoni B. Chan

Probabilistic graphical modeling (PGM) provides a framework for formulating an interpretable generative process of data and expressing uncertainty about unknowns, but it lacks flexibility. Deep learning (DL) is an alternative framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-27 Adji B. Dieng

Clustering is one of the most widely used procedures in the analysis of microarray data, for example with the goal of discovering cancer subtypes based on observed heterogeneity of genetic marks between different tissues. It is well-known…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-04-21 Heng Lian

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks,…

Probabilistic forecasting of complex phenomena is paramount to various scientific disciplines and applications. Despite the generality and importance of the problem, general mathematical techniques that allow for stable long-term forecasts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Alex Mallen , Henning Lange , J. Nathan Kutz