Related papers: A note on last-success-problems
Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen…
The primal problem of multinomial likelihood maximization restricted to a convex closed subset of the probability simplex is studied. Contrary to widely held belief, a solution of this problem may assign a positive mass to an outcome with…
The average properties of the well-known Subset Sum Problem can be studied by the means of its randomised version, where we are given a target value $z$, random variables $X_1, \ldots, X_n$, and an error parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, and we…
In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the experiment the subject never (always)…
We consider the permutation analogue of Penney's game for words. Two players, in order, each choose a permutation of length $k\ge3$; then a sequence of independent random values from a continuous distribution is generated, until the…
Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. Given that deterministic robustness often comes with significantly reduced accuracy, probabilistic robustness (i.e., the probability of having…
Testing by betting has been a cornerstone of the game-theoretic statistics literature. One bets against the null hypothesis, and the accumulated wealth $W_t$ quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis after $t$ rounds, and the null…
A Bernoulli scheme with unequal harmonic success probabilities is investigated, together with some of its natural extensions. The study includes the number of successes over some time window, the times to (between) successive successes and…
Consider some matrix waiting for its coefficients to be written. For each column, sample independently a Bernoulli random variable of some parameter $p$. Seeing all this and possibly using extra randomness, Alice then chooses one spot in…
We study a modification of the so-called Parrondo's paradox where a large number of individuals choose the game they want to play by voting. We show that it can be better for the players to vote randomly than to vote according to their own…
Hypothesis testing via e-variables can be framed as a sequential betting game, where a player each round picks an e-variable. A good player's strategy results in an effective statistical test that rejects the null hypothesis as soon as…
In this note we present an algorithm to obtain a uniform lower bound on Hausdorff dimension of the stationary measure of an affine iterated function scheme with similarities, the best known example of which is Bernoulli convolution. The…
Let $\eta_i, i=1,..., n$ be iid Bernoulli random variables. Given a multiset $\bv$ of $n$ numbers $v_1, ..., v_n$, the \emph{concentration probability} $\P_1(\bv)$ of $\bv$ is defined as $\P_1(\bv) := \sup_{x} \P(v_1 \eta_1+ ... v_n…
We consider the following one-player game called Dundee. We are given a deck consisting of s_i cards of Value i, where i=1,...,v, and an integer m\le s_1+...+s_v. There are m rounds. In each round, the player names a number between 1 and v…
This work addresses the classic machine learning problem of online prediction with expert advice. We consider the finite-horizon version of this zero-sum, two-person game. Using verification arguments from optimal control theory, we view…
A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of…
Lionel Levine's hat challenge has $t$ players, each with a (very large, or infinite) stack of hats on their head, each hat independently colored at random black or white. The players are allowed to coordinate before the random colors are…
We derive a new lower bound on the success probability of the Pretty Good Measurement (PGM) for worst-case quantum state discrimination among $m$ pure states. Our bound is strictly tighter than the previously known Gram-matrix-based bound…
We consider two variations of the classical secretary problem. * A variation of the returning secretary problem where each interviewee may appear a second time with a fixed probability p. The decision-maker observes interviewees…
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a Bernoulli parameter using finite memory. Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables with expectation $\theta$, where $\theta \in…