Related papers: Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Pe…
Mortality forecasting plays a pivotal role in insurance and financial risk management of life insurers, pension funds, and social securities. Mortality data is usually high-dimensional in nature and favors factor model approaches to…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…
High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…
Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive…
Italy reports some of the lowest levels of mortality in the developed world. Recent evidence, however, suggests that even in low mortality countries improvements may be slowing and regional inequalities widening. This study contributes new…
The missing data problem pervasively exists in statistical applications. Even as simple as the count data in mortality projections, it may not be available for certain age-and-year groups due to the budget limitations or difficulties in…
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a widely used technique in exploratory data analysis, visualization, and data preprocessing, leveraging the concept of variance to identify key dimensions in datasets. In this study, we focus on the…
Accurate and precise estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) are an important health summary for countries. However, full survival curves allow us to better understand the pattern of mortality in children under five. Modern…
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…
We estimate the number of fatal victims of the Peruvian internal armed conflict between 1980-2000 using stratified seven-list Capture-Recapture methods based on Dirichlet process mixtures, which we extend to accommodate incomplete…
Mortality forecasting is crucial for demographic planning and actuarial studies, especially for projecting population ageing and longevity risk. Classical approaches largely rely on extrapolative methods, such as the Lee-Carter (LC) model,…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
Index-based hedging solutions are used to transfer the longevity risk to the capital markets. However, mismatches between the liability of the hedger and the hedging instrument cause longevity basis risk. Therefore, an appropriate…
Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…
In this paper, we compare semiparametric and parametric model adjustments for cancer mortality in breast and cervical cancer and prostate and lung cancer in men, according to age and period of death. Semiparametric models were adjusted for…