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Bayesian optimization is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions based on scarce and noisy data. Its data efficiency can be further improved by transfer learning from related tasks. While recent transfer models meta-learn a…

Optimization problems routinely depend on uncertain parameters that must be predicted before a decision is made. Classical robust and regret formulations are designed to handle erroneous predictions and can provide statistical error bounds…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Jannis Kurtz , Bart P. G. van Parys

TWe establish regret lower bounds for adaptively controlling an unknown linear Gaussian system with quadratic costs. We combine ideas from experiment design, estimation theory and a perturbation bound of certain information matrices to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Ingvar Ziemann , Henrik Sandberg

We study the problem of selecting the best $m$ units from a set of $n$ as $m / n \to \alpha \in (0, 1)$, where noisy, heteroskedastic measurements of the units' true values are available and the decision-maker wishes to maximize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Dominic Coey , Kenneth Hung

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-10 Tapio Helin , Andrew Stuart , Aretha Teckentrup , Konstantinos Zygalakis

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

When learning to ride a bike, a child falls down a number of times before achieving the first success. As falling down usually has only mild consequences, it can be seen as a tolerable failure in exchange for a faster learning process, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-18 Alonso Marco , Alexander von Rohr , Dominik Baumann , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Sebastian Trimpe

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

Algorithm selection is typically based on models of algorithm performance, learned during a separate offline training sequence, which can be prohibitively expensive. In recent work, we adopted an online approach, in which a performance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-31 Matteo Gagliolo , Juergen Schmidhuber

Gaussian process regression is a well-established Bayesian machine learning method. We propose a new approach to Gaussian process regression using quantum kernels based on parameterized quantum circuits. By employing a hardware-efficient…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-02-06 Frederic Rapp , Marco Roth

Expected improvement (EI) is one of the most widely used acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization (BO). Despite its proven success in applications for decades, important open questions remain on the theoretical convergence behaviors…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Jingyi Wang , Haowei Wang , Nai-Yuan Chiang , Cosmin G. Petra

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

We provide an online convex optimization algorithm with regret that interpolates between the regret of an algorithm using an optimal preconditioning matrix and one using a diagonal preconditioning matrix. Our regret bound is never worse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Ashok Cutkosky , Tamas Sarlos

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Yongsheng Mei , Mahdi Imani , Tian Lan

We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-23 Paul Reverdy , Vaibhav Srivastava , Naomi E. Leonard

In this paper we propose a novel experimental design-based algorithm to minimize regret in online stochastic linear and combinatorial bandits. While existing literature tends to focus on optimism-based algorithms--which have been shown to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Andrew Wagenmaker , Julian Katz-Samuels , Kevin Jamieson

Autoregressive processes naturally arise in a large variety of real-world scenarios, including stock markets, sales forecasting, weather prediction, advertising, and pricing. When facing a sequential decision-making problem in such a…

In many real-world optimization problems, we have prior information about what objective function values are achievable. In this paper, we study the scenario that we have either exact knowledge of the minimum value or a, possibly inexact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Hanyang Wang , Juergen Branke , Matthias Poloczek

Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Yayi Zou , Xiaoqi Lu

We explore whether quantum advantages can be found for the zeroth-order feedback online exp-concave optimization problem, which is also known as bandit exp-concave optimization with multi-point feedback. We present quantum online…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-28 Jianhao He , Chengchang Liu , Xutong Liu , Lvzhou Li , John C. S. Lui
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