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In this paper, we propose an efficient importance sampling algorithm for rare event simulation under copula models. In the algorithm, the derived optimal probability measure is based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-07 Siang Cheng , Cheng-Der Fuh , Tianxiao Pang

Distortion risk measures play a critical role in quantifying risks associated with uncertain outcomes. Accurately estimating these risk measures in the context of computationally expensive simulation models that lack analytical tractability…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-29 Sören Bettels , Stefan Weber

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Quan Zheng , Matthias Zwicker

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-16 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

A method is presented to tackle the sign problem in the simulations of systems having indefinite or complex-valued measures. In general, this new approach is shown to yield statistical errors smaller than the crude Monte Carlo using…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2008-11-26 T D Kieu , C J Griffin

Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique for efficient estimation of rare-event probabilities by Monte Carlo. In standard importance sampling schemes, the system is simulated using an a priori fixed change of measure suggested…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paul Dupuis , Hui Wang

Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…

Computational Physics · Physics 2010-11-22 John Robert Trail , Ryo Maezono

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-14 F. Llorente , L. Martino , D. Delgado , G. Camps-Valls

In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-16 Ruosi Wan , Mingjun Zhong , Haoyi Xiong , Zhanxing Zhu

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-01 Morgane Menz , Sylvain Dubreuil , Jérôme Morio , Christian Gogu , Nathalie Bartoli , Marie Chiron

This article investigates the integration of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods using the Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS). Traditional Importance Sampling (IS) often suffers from poor performance since it heavily relies on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Jianlong Chen , Jiarui Du , Xiaoqun Wang , Zhijian He

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

This paper provides an introductory overview of how one may employ importance sampling effectively as a tool for solving stochastic optimization formulations incorporating tail risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk. Approximating…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-11 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

Importance sampling is widely used to improve the efficiency of deep neural network (DNN) training by reducing the variance of gradient estimators. However, efficiently assessing the variance reduction relative to uniform sampling remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Takuro Kutsuna

Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high-dimensional models where the performance of standard importance sampling (IS) methods often degrades rapidly as the dimensionality increases. Classical analyses of IS typically rely on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) is a fundamental tool in Bayesian inference when the posterior distribution involves an unknown normalizing constant. Although $L_1$-error (bias) and $L_2$-error (root mean square error) estimates…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He
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