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Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi , Igor Tchappi , Gilbert Fridgen

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Jan Niklas Lettner , Hadeer El Ashhab , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-20 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the…

Short-term load forecasting for AI data centers presents new challenges because it is computing-driven, with heterogeneous job arrivals, sizes, and durations exhibiting bursty, non-stationary dynamics. Compared with traditional load types,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-01 Ziying Wang , Ying Zhang , Lei Wang , Yuzhang Lin

The ensemble random forest filter (ERFF) is presented as an alternative to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for the purpose of inverse modeling. The EnKF is a data assimilation approach that forecasts and updates parameter estimates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-11 Vanessa A. Godoy , Gian F. Napa-García , J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández

Data-driven approaches for medium-range weather forecasting are recently shown extraordinarily promising for ensemble forecasting for their fast inference speed compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but their…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Yuan Hu , Lei Chen , Zhibin Wang , Hao Li

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for socioeconomic activities. While data-driven forecasting demonstrates superior predictive capabilities over traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with reduced computational demands, its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-12 Congyi Nai , Xi Chen , Shangshang Yang , Yuan Liang , Ziniu Xiao , Baoxiang Pan

To enhance the accuracy of power load forecasting in wind farms, this study introduces an advanced combined forecasting method that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Qiang Xie

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-26 Jonathan A. Weyn , Divya Kumar , Jeremy Berman , Najeeb Kazmi , Sylwester Klocek , Pete Luferenko , Kit Thambiratnam

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-20 Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia , Tobias Bölle , Christoph Metzl

Accurate electrical load forecasting is of great importance for the efficient operation and control of modern power systems. In this work, a hybrid long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model with online correction is developed for day-ahead…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-07 Nan Lu , Quan Ouyang , Yang Li , Changfu Zou

Short-term load forecasting is of paramount importance in the efficient operation and planning of power systems, given its inherent non-linear and dynamic nature. Recent strides in deep learning have shown promise in addressing this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Paapa Kwesi Quansah , Edwin Kwesi Ansah Tenkorang

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Xinlei Xiong , Wenbo Hu , Shuxun Zhou , Kaifeng Bi , Lingxi Xie , Ying Liu , Richang Hong , Qi Tian

Electric energy is difficult to store, requiring stricter control over its generation, transmission, and distribution. A persistent challenge in power systems is maintaining real-time equilibrium between electricity demand and supply.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-27 Aurausp Maneshni

Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-12 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the power balance between generators and consumers,particularly with the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, which introduce significant intermittent volatility. With the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-04 Mingyang Gao , Suyang Zhou , Wei Gu , Zhi Wu , Haiquan Liu , Aihua Zhou

Forecasting electricity demand is increasingly challenging as energy systems become more decentralized and intertwined with renewable sources. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm to model spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Eloi Campagne , Yvenn Amara-Ouali , Yannig Goude , Itai Zehavi , Argyris Kalogeratos

Inexpensive machine learning potentials are increasingly being used to speed up structural optimization and molecular dynamics simulations of materials by iteratively predicting and applying interatomic forces. In these settings, it is…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-09-12 Jonas Busk , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen

Short-term forecasts of energy consumption are invaluable for the operation of energy systems, including low voltage electricity networks. However, network loads are challenging to predict when highly desegregated to small numbers of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-10 Ciaran Gilbert , Jethro Browell , Bruce Stephen