Related papers: Long term surface-air temperature variations over …
The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we…
Climate change in India is one of the most alarming problems faced by our community. Due to adverse and sudden changes in climate in past few years, mankind is at threat. Various impacts of climate change include extreme heat, changing…
We study the evolution of continental, zonal and seasonal land temperature anomalies especially in the early 20th century warming (ETCW) period, using principal component analysis (PCA) and reverse arrangement trend analysis. ETCW is…
Precipitation is a large-scale, spatio-temporally heterogeneous phenomenon, with frequent anomalies exhibiting unusually high or low values. We use Markov Random Fields (MRFs) to detect spatio-temporally coherent anomalies in gridded annual…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
We have done a statistical analysis of the wind field from the archive of NCEP/NOAA over the Indian Ocean for the period 1998-2008yy, which is given on a grid 1x1.25 of latitude-longitude with 3h time-step. Initial analysis includes mapping…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
Acknowledging a considerable literature on modeling daily temperature data, we propose a multi-level spatio-temporal model which introduces several innovations in order to explain the daily maximum temperature in the summer period over 60…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed…
We propose a representation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in terms of a probabilistic model based on a Markov Random Field, consisting of discrete state variables representing low and high rainfall at grid-scale and daily rainfall…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface…
We demonstrate an alternative correlation between the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature variation to that shown by McLean et al. [2009]. We show 50% of the variation in RATPAC-A tropospheric temperature (and 54%…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar…
We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…
This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…