Related papers: Stability of Gaussian Process State Space Models

Designing a covariance function that represents the underlying correlation is a crucial step in modeling complex natural systems, such as climate models. Geospatial datasets at a global scale usually suffer from non-stationarity and…

The Poisson-gamma state space (PGSS) models have been utilized in the analysis of non-negative integer-valued time series to sequentially obtain closed form filtering and predictive densities. In this study, we show the underlying mechanics…

Covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes is analyzed in an asymptotic framework. The spatial sampling is a randomly perturbed regular grid and its deviation from the perfect regular grid is controlled by a single scalar…

Gaussian processes are frequently deployed as part of larger machine learning and decision-making systems, for instance in geospatial modeling, Bayesian optimization, or in latent Gaussian models. Within a system, the Gaussian process model…

Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…

Modelling real world systems involving humans such as biological processes for disease treatment or human behavior for robotic rehabilitation is a challenging problem because labeled training data is sparse and expensive, while high…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are the most common formalism for defining probability distributions over spaces of functions. While applications of GPs are myriad, a comprehensive understanding of GP sample paths, i.e. the function spaces over…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Continuous-time state estimation is gaining in popularity due to its abilities to provide smooth solutions, handle asynchronous sensors, and interpolate between data points. While there are two main paradigms, parametric (e.g., temporal…

Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM)…

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…

In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

We introduce a new class of nonstationary kernels, which we derive as covariance functions of a novel family of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs). We construct string GPs to allow for multiple types…

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP)…

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…