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Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Sofia L. Vega , Rachel C. Nethery

Key to being able to accurately model the properties of realistic materials is being able to predict their properties in the thermodynamic limit. Nevertheless, because most many-body electronic structure methods scale as a high-order…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-04-04 Edgar Josué Landinez Borda , Kenneth O. Berard , Annette Lopez , Brenda Rubenstein

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Edoardo Marcelli , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible non-parametric models, with a capacity that grows with the available data. However, computational constraints with standard inference procedures have limited exact GPs to problems with fewer than about…

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Angus Lewis , Antonio Parrella , John Maclean , Andrew J. Black

A typical audio signal processing pipeline includes multiple disjoint analysis stages, including calculation of a time-frequency representation followed by spectrogram-based feature analysis. We show how time-frequency analysis and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-30 William J. Wilkinson , Michael Riis Andersen , Joshua D. Reiss , Dan Stowell , Arno Solin

Introducing inequality constraints in Gaussian process (GP) models can lead to more realistic uncertainties in learning a great variety of real-world problems. We consider the finite-dimensional Gaussian approach from Maatouk and Bay (2017)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-04 Andrés F. López-Lopera , François Bachoc , Nicolas Durrande , Olivier Roustant

Gaussian process (GP) surrogates are the default tool for emulating expensive computer experiments, but cubic cost, stationarity assumptions, and Gaussian predictive distributions limit their reach. We propose Generative Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

State-space models are used in a wide range of time series analysis formulations. Kalman filtering and smoothing are work-horse algorithms in these settings. While classic algorithms assume Gaussian errors to simplify estimation, recent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-02 Jonathan Jonker , Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , James V. Burke , Gianluigi Pillonetto , Sarah Webster

Spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression is a popular method for spatial-temporal data modeling. Its state-of-art implementation is based on the state-space model realization of the spatial-temporal Gaussian process and its…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-27 Junpeng Zhang , Yue Ju , Biqiang Mu , Renxin Zhong , Tianshi Chen

Surrogate models are often used to replace costly-to-evaluate complex coastal codes to achieve substantial computational savings. In many of those models, the hydrometeorological forcing conditions (inputs) or flood events (outputs) are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-04 A. F. López-Lopera , D. Idier , J. Rohmer , F. Bachoc

Gaussian processes are a powerful class of non-linear models, but have limited applicability for larger datasets due to their high computational complexity. In such cases, approximate methods are required, for example, the recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Soham Mukherjee , Manfred Claassen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Gaussian processes are typically used for smoothing and interpolation on small datasets. We introduce a new Bayesian nonparametric framework -- GPatt -- enabling automatic pattern extrapolation with Gaussian processes on large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-03 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Elad Gilboa , Arye Nehorai , John P. Cunningham

Continuous-time trajectory representations are a powerful tool that can be used to address several issues in many practical simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) scenarios, like continuously collected measurements distorted by robot…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-05-18 Jing Dong , Byron Boots , Frank Dellaert

In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-02 Hossein Mohammadi , Peter Challenor , Marc Goodfellow , Daniel Williamson

Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-19 Alan D. Saul , James Hensman , Aki Vehtari , Neil D. Lawrence

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Juan Maroñas , Oliver Hamelijnck , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

Large-scale Gaussian process models are becoming increasingly important and widely used in many areas, such as, computer experiments, stochastic optimization via simulation, and machine learning using Gaussian processes. The standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Yongxiang Li , Qiang Zhou , Kwok Leung Tsui , Javier Cabrera

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…

The Gaussian process (GP) model, which has been extensively applied as priors of functions, has demonstrated excellent performance. The specification of a large number of parameters affects the computational efficiency and the feasibility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-13 Shisheng Cui , Chia-Jung Chang
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