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Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Marnix Suilen , Ufuk Topcu

Probabilistic time series forecasting has played critical role in decision-making processes due to its capability to quantify uncertainties. Deep forecasting models, however, could be prone to input perturbations, and the notion of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-25 TaeHo Yoon , Youngsuk Park , Ernest K. Ryu , Yuyang Wang

Robust design of autonomous systems under uncertainty is an important yet challenging problem. This work proposes a robust controller that consists of a state estimator and a tube based predictive control law. The class of linear systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-11 Tianchen Ji , Junyi Geng , Katherine Driggs-Campbell

In safety-critical control, managing safety constraints with high relative degrees and uncertain obstacle dynamics pose significant challenges in guaranteeing safety performance. Robust Control Barrier Functions (RCBFs) offer a potential…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-06 Kwang Hak Kim , Mamadou Diagne , Miroslav Krstić

By integrating dynamics models into model-free reinforcement learning (RL) methods, model-based value expansion (MVE) algorithms have shown a significant advantage in sample efficiency as well as value estimation. However, these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Bo Zhou , Hongsheng Zeng , Fan Wang , Yunxiang Li , Hao Tian

We consider the problem of learning a control policy that is robust against the parameter mismatches between the training environment and testing environment. We formulate this as a distributionally robust reinforcement learning (DR-RL)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Zaiyan Xu , Kishan Panaganti , Dileep Kalathil

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated state-of-the-art results in a number of autonomous system applications, however many of the underlying algorithms rely on black-box predictions. This results in poor explainability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-27 Matt Benatan , Edward O. Pyzer-Knapp

Recursion is the fundamental paradigm to finitely describe potentially infinite objects. As state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms cannot directly reason about recursion, they must rely on the practitioner's ingenuity in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Ernst Moritz Hahn , Mateo Perez , Sven Schewe , Fabio Somenzi , Ashutosh Trivedi , Dominik Wojtczak

We extend the classical mean-variance (MV) framework and propose a robust and sparse portfolio selection model incorporating an ellipsoidal uncertainty set to reduce the impact of estimation errors and fixed transaction costs to penalize…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-30 J. Chen , S. D. Ahipaşaoğlu , N. Zhang , Y. Yang

When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-11 Xiaoyu Cheng

Practical reinforcement learning problems are often formulated as constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) problems, in which the agent has to maximize the expected return while satisfying a set of prescribed safety constraints. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-23 Shin-ichi Maeda , Hayato Watahiki , Shintarou Okada , Masanori Koyama

Robust reinforcement learning aims to produce policies that have strong guarantees even in the face of environments/transition models whose parameters have strong uncertainty. Existing work uses value-based methods and the usual primitive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-12 Daniel J. Mankowitz , Timothy A. Mann , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Doina Precup , Shie Mannor

In this paper, we study randomized methods for feedback design of uncertain systems. The first contribution is to derive the sample complexity of various constrained control problems. In particular, we show the key role played by the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-07-22 T. Alamo , R. Tempo , A. Luque , D. R. Ramirez

Model-based reinforcement learning is a widely accepted solution for solving excessive sample demands. However, the predictions of the dynamics models are often not accurate enough, and the resulting bias may incur catastrophic decisions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Wanpeng Zhang , Xi Xiao , Yao Yao , Mingzhe Chen , Dijun Luo

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Stephan Eckstein , Michael Kupper , Mathias Pohl

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) generalize classical MDPs that consider uncertainties in transition probabilities by defining a set of possible transition functions. An objective is a set of runs (or infinite trajectories) of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Ali Asadi , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Ehsan Kafshdar Goharshady , Mehrdad Karrabi , Ali Shafiee

In this paper, we propose a data-driven robust safety verification framework for stochastic dynamical systems modeled as Markov decision processes with time-varying and uncertain transition probabilities. Rather than assuming access to the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-09 Abhijit Mazumdar , Manuela L. Bujorianu , Rafal Wisniewski

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

We study the tradeoff between consistency and robustness in the context of a single-trajectory time-varying Markov Decision Process (MDP) with untrusted machine-learned advice. Our work departs from the typical approach of treating advice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Tongxin Li , Yiheng Lin , Shaolei Ren , Adam Wierman

Optimally sequencing experimental assays in drug discovery is a high-stakes planning problem under severe uncertainty and resource constraints. A primary obstacle for standard reinforcement learning (RL) is the absence of an explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Tianchi Chen , Jan Bima , Sean L. Wu , Otto Ritter , Bingjia Yang , Xiang Yu
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