Related papers: Contact-based model for epidemic spreading on temp…
Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies…
We study the epidemic spreading on spatial networks where the probability that two nodes are connected decays with their distance as a power law. As the exponent of the distance dependence grows, model networks smoothly transition from the…
Decision-making about pandemic mitigation often relies upon simulation modelling. Models of disease transmission through networks of contacts--between individuals or between population centres--are increasingly used for these purposes.…
Edge-based percolation methods can be used to analyze disease transmission on complex social networks. This allows us to include complex social heterogeneity in our models while maintaining tractability. Here we review the seminal works on…
We investigate the impact of misinformation about the contact structure on the ability to predict disease outbreaks. We base our study on 31 empirical temporal networks and tune the frequencies in errors in the node identities or timestamps…
Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic…
We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic…
In this survey we report some recent results in the mathematical modeling of epidemic phenomena through the use of kinetic equations. We initially consider models of interaction between agents in which social characteristics play a key role…
We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
The spread of a contagious disease clearly depends on when infected individuals come into contact with susceptible ones. Such effects, however, have remained largely unexplored in the study of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, it remains…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…