Related papers: Fundamentals of Gaussian CM Sequences
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
In this work, we want to learn to model the dynamics of similar yet distinct groups of interacting objects. These groups follow some common physical laws that exhibit specificities that are captured through some vectorial description. We…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…
Graphical models express conditional independence relationships among variables. Although methods for vector-valued data are well established, functional data graphical models remain underdeveloped. We introduce a notion of conditional…
Non-Markovian dynamics are ubiquitous across physics, biology, and engineering. Yet our understanding of non-Markovian processes significantly lags that of simpler Markovian processes, due largely to a lack of tractable models. In this…
The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth…
From a continuous-time long memory stochastic process, a discrete-time randomly sampled one is drawn. We investigate the second-order properties of this process and establish some time-and frequency-domain asymptotic results. We mainly…
Causal representation learning promises to extend causal models to hidden causal variables from raw entangled measurements. However, most progress has focused on proving identifiability results in different settings, and we are not aware of…
Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) methods are developed for Casual Inference. Generative methods are simulation-based methods that use a large training dataset to represent posterior distributions as a map (a.k.a. optimal transport) to…
A Markov network characterizes the conditional independence structure, or Markov property, among a set of random variables. Existing work focuses on specific families of distributions (e.g., exponential families) and/or certain structures…
Empirical processes for stationary, causal sequences are considered. We establish empirical central limit theorems for classes of indicators of left half lines, absolutely continuous functions and piecewise differentiable functions. Sample…
When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…
In recent years, causal modelling has been used widely to improve generalization and to provide interpretability in machine learning models. To determine cause-effect relationships in the absence of a randomized trial, we can model causal…
We present a probabilistic generative model for inferring a description of coordinated, recursively structured group activities at multiple levels of temporal granularity based on observations of individuals' trajectories. The model…
We present a Gaussian Process - Latent Class Choice Model (GP-LCCM) to integrate a non-parametric class of probabilistic machine learning within discrete choice models (DCMs). Gaussian Processes (GPs) are kernel-based algorithms that…
Neural processes are a family of models which use neural networks to directly parametrise a map from data sets to predictions. Directly parametrising this map enables the use of expressive neural networks in small-data problems where neural…
Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…
Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model…
Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…