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Related papers: An Ephemerally Self-Exciting Point Process

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We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

Self-exciting point processes describe the manner in which every event facilitates the occurrence of succeeding events. By increasing excitability, the event occurrences start to exhibit bursts even in the absence of external stimuli. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-05-01 Tomokatsu Onaga , Shigeru Shinomoto

We proposed a new generalized model based on the classical Hawkes process with environmental multipliers, which is called an environmentally-adaptive Hawkes (EAH) model. Compared to the classical self-exciting Hawkes process, the EAH model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Tingnan Gong , Yu Chen , Weiping Zhang

Temporal networks are characterised by interdependent link events between nodes, forming ordered sequences of links that may represent specific information flows in the system. Nevertheless, representing temporal networks using discrete…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Yuwei Zhu , Paolo Barucca

Hawkes processes are point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties that are popular in applications. In recent years, renewal Hawkes processes have gained attention, due to their versatility such as the capability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Lirong Cui , Yongji Zhang , Lingjiong Zhu

We determine the large size limit of a network of interacting Hawkes Processes on an adaptive network. The flipping of the node variables is taken to have an intensity given by the mean-field of the afferent edges and nodes. The flipping of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-15 James MacLaurin

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

In this paper, a framework on a discrete observation of (marked) point processes under the high-frequency observation is developed. Based on this framework, we first clarify the relation between random coefficient integer-valued…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-11 Daisuke Kurisu

This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

Networks capture our intuition about relationships in the world. They describe the friendships between Facebook users, interactions in financial markets, and synapses connecting neurons in the brain. These networks are richly structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-14 Scott W. Linderman , Ryan P. Adams

Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Zhipeng Huang , Hadeel Soliman , Subhadeep Paul , Kevin S. Xu

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-12-04 Santiago Lamata-Otín , Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes , David Soriano-Paños

Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-09 Peter Boyd , James Molyneux

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Manon Costa , Carl Graham , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Feng Zhou , Yixuan Zhang , Jun Zhu