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Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) constitute a flexible approach to both finding solutions and identifying parameters of partial differential equations. Most works on the topic assume noiseless data, or data contaminated with weak…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Philipp Pilar , Niklas Wahlström

The success of the current wave of artificial intelligence can be partly attributed to deep neural networks, which have proven to be very effective in learning complex patterns from large datasets with minimal human intervention. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Haakon Robinson , Suraj Pawar , Adil Rasheed , Omer San

The integration of Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) techniques with uncertainty quantification (UQ) represents a rapidly evolving frontier in computational science. This work advances Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Georgios Arampatzis , Stylianos Katsarakis , Charalambos Makridakis

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

We present an approach to quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks in image classification, based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). While most works in the literature that use GANs to generate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Philipp Oberdiek , Gernot A. Fink , Matthias Rottmann

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have gained significant prominence as a powerful tool in the field of scientific computing and simulations. Their ability to seamlessly integrate physical principles into deep learning architectures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Zakaria Elabid , Daniel Busby , Abdenour Hadid

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Jan David Schneider , Fabian Hüger , Peter Schlicht , Tim Wirtz , Stefan Wrobel

In this paper, we study a physics-informed algorithm for Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) for uncertainty quantification in solutions of partial differential equations. By using groupsort activation functions in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-10 Yihang Gao , Michael K. Ng

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Equation learning aims to infer differential equation models from data. While a number of studies have shown that differential equation models can be successfully identified when the data are sufficiently detailed and corrupted with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-30 Simon Martina-Perez , Matthew J. Simpson , Ruth E. Baker

Recently, physics informed neural networks have successfully been applied to a broad variety of problems in applied mathematics and engineering. The principle idea is to use a neural network as a global ansatz function to partial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Alexander Henkes , Henning Wessels , Rolf Mahnken

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-02 Hamza Boukraichi , Nissrine Akkari , Fabien Casenave , David Ryckelynck

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-16 Xujiang Zhao , Yuzhe Ou , Lance Kaplan , Feng Chen , Jin-Hee Cho

Surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification tasks for PDE systems are most often considered as supervised learning problems where input and output data pairs are used for training. The construction of such emulators is by definition a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-06-26 Yinhao Zhu , Nicholas Zabaras , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Paris Perdikaris

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

This study investigates whether Physically Recurrent Neural Networks (PRNNs), a recent surrogate model for heterogeneous materials, trained on a micromodel with fixed material parameters, can maintain accuracy for varying material…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-04-17 N. Kovács , I. B. C. M. Rocha , F. P. van der Meer , C. Furtado , P. P. Camanho

Machine-learning models can be fooled by adversarial examples, i.e., carefully-crafted input perturbations that force models to output wrong predictions. While uncertainty quantification has been recently proposed to detect adversarial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Emanuele Ledda , Daniele Angioni , Giorgio Piras , Giorgio Fumera , Battista Biggio , Fabio Roli