Related papers: Simulation-based inference methods for partially o…
De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…
Variance reduction methods are often needed for the reliability assessment of complex industrial systems, we focus on one variance reduction method in a given context, that is the interacting particle system method (IPS) used on piecewise…
We consider an optimization problem related to semi-active damping of vibrating systems. The main problem is to determine the best damping matrix able to minimize influence of the input on the output of the system. We use a minimization…
An algorithm for non-stationary spatial modelling using multiple secondary variables is developed. It combines Geostatistics with Quantile Random Forests to give a new interpolation and stochastic simulation algorithm. This paper introduces…
Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…
Planning under uncertainty is critical to robotics. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) is a mathematical framework for such planning problems. It is powerful due to its careful quantification of the non-deterministic…
We study statistical inferences for a class of modulated stationary processes with time-dependent variances. Due to non-stationarity and the large number of unknown parameters, existing methods for stationary, or locally stationary, time…
This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…
Measuring entropy production of a system directly from the experimental data is highly desirable since it gives a quantifiable measure of the time-irreversibility for non-equilibrium systems and can be used as a cost function to optimize…
We present a generic reweighting method for nonequilibrium Markov processes. With nonequilibrium Monte Carlo simulations at a single temperature, one calculates the time evolution of physical quantities at different temperatures, which…
Smoothed model checking based on Gaussian process classification provides a powerful approach for statistical model checking of parametric continuous time Markov chain models. The method constructs a model for the functional dependence of…
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…
The purpose of time series analysis via mechanistic models is to reconcile the known or hypothesized structure of a dynamical system with observations collected over time. We develop a framework for constructing nonlinear mechanistic models…
Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) model decision making under uncertainty. While there are many approaches to approximately solving POMDPs, we aim to address the problem of learning such models. In particular, we are…
Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…
Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…
Modern signal processing (SP) methods rely very heavily on probability and statistics to solve challenging SP problems. SP methods are now expected to deal with ever more complex models, requiring ever more sophisticated computational…
Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…
Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…