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For non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems, mean exit time and escape probability are important deterministic quantities, which can be obtained from integro-differential (nonlocal) equations. We develop an efficient and convergent…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Xiao Wang , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li , Renming Song

The mean first exit time and escape probability are utilized to quantify dynamical behaviors of stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian alpha-stable type Levy motions. Both deterministic quantities are characterized by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li , Renming Song

Stochastic mathematical models are essential tools for understanding and predicting complex phenomena. The purpose of this work is to study the exit times of a stochastic dynamical system-specifically, the mean exit time and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Eric José Ávila-Vales , José Villa-Morales

The mean first exit (passage) time characterizes the average time of a stochastic process never leaving a fixed region in the state space, while the escape probability describes the likelihood of a transition from one region to another for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-28 Weihua Deng , Xiaochao Wu , Wanli Wang

Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan

We study the exit problem of solutions of the stochastic differential equation dX(t)=-U'(X(t))dt+epsilon dL(t) from bounded or unbounded intervals which contain the unique asymptotically stable critical point of the deterministic dynamical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter Imkeller , Ilya Pavlyukevich

The mean exit time escaping basin of attraction in the presence of white noise is of practical importance in various scientific fields. In this work, we propose a strategy to control mean exit time of general stochastic dynamical systems to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-09 Yang Li , Shenglan Yuan , Shengyuan Xu

We present a method to learn mean residence time and escape probability from data modeled by stochastic differential equations. This method is a combination of machine learning from data (to extract stochastic differential equations as…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Dengfeng Wu , Miaomiao Fu , Jinqiao Duan

It is a challenging issue to analyze complex dynamics from observed and simulated data. An advantage of extracting dynamic behaviors from data is that this approach enables the investigation of nonlinear phenomena whose mathematical models…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-21 Yubin Lu , Jinqiao Duan

The emergence of the exit events from a bounded domain containing a stable fixed point induced by non-Gaussian L\'evy fluctuations plays a pivotal role in practical physical systems. In the limit of weak noise, we develop a Hamiltonian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Yang Li , Jinqiao Duan , Xianbin Liu , Yanxia Zhang

With the rapid increase of valuable observational, experimental and simulated data for complex systems, much efforts have been devoted to identifying governing laws underlying the evolution of these systems. Despite the wide applications of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-01 Yang Li , Yubin Lu , Shengyuan Xu , Jinqiao Duan

Motivated by the existing difficulties in establishing mathematical models and in observing the system state time series for some complex systems, especially for those driven by non-Gaussian Levy motion, we devise a method for extracting…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-12-02 Yanxia Zhang , Jinqiao Duan , Yanfei Jin , Yang Li

The goal of the paper is to analytically examine escape probabilities for dynamical systems driven by symmetric $\alpha$-stable L\'evy motions. Since escape probabilities are solutions of a type of integro-differential equations (i.e.,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Huijie Qiao , Jinqiao Duan

A dynamical system driven by non-Gaussian L\'evy noises of small intensity is considered. The first exit time of solution orbits from a bounded neighborhood of an attracting equilibrium state is estimated. For a class of non-Gaussian L\'evy…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-08-08 Zhihui Yang , Jinqiao Duan

Stochastic biochemical and transport processes have various final outcomes, and they can be viewed as dynamic systems with multiple exits. Many current theoretical studies, however, typically consider only a single time scale for each…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-26 Golan Bel , Anton Zilman , Anatoly B. Kolomeisky

A novel method is presented to compute the exit time for the stochastic simulation algorithm. The method is based on the addition of a series of random variables and is derived using the convolution theorem. The final distribution is…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-15 Basil S. Bayati

We study the mean escape time in a market model with stochastic volatility. The process followed by the volatility is the Cox Ingersoll and Ross process which is widely used to model stock price fluctuations. The market model can be…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Giovanni Bonanno , Davide Valenti , Bernardo Spagnolo

The {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process, commonly used to describe L\'evy flight, is characterized by discontinuous jumps and is widely used to model anomalous transport phenomena. In this study, we investigate the associated exit problem and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Minglei Yang , Diego del-Castillo-Negrete , Guannan Zhang

In this paper we study the mean of the first exit time from a bounded interval of various L\'evy processes. We establish sharp two-sided estimates of the mean for L\'evy processes under certain condition on their characteristic exponents.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-13 Tomasz Grzywny

The escape probability is a deterministic concept that quantifies some aspects of stochastic dynamics. This issue has been investigated previously for dynamical systems driven by Gaussian Brownian motions. The present work considers escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-05-15 Huijie Qiao , Xingye Kan , Jinqiao Duan
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