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Ambiguity and ambiguity aversion have been widely studied in decision theory and economics both at a theoretical and an experimental level. After Ellsberg's seminal studies challenging subjective expected utility theory (SEUT), several…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-20 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo

The Machina thought experiments pose to major non-expected utility models challenges that are similar to those posed by the Ellsberg thought experiments to subjective expected utility theory (SEUT). We test human choices in the `Ellsberg…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-09 Diederik Aerts , Suzette Geriente , Catarina Moreira , Sandro Sozzo

Expected utility theory (EUT) is widely used in economic theory. However, its subjective probability formulation, first elaborated by Savage, is linked to Ellsberg-like paradoxes and ambiguity aversion. This has led various scholars to work…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-12 Diederik Aerts , Emmanuel Haven , Sandro Sozzo

The 'expected utility hypothesis' is one of the foundations of classical approaches to economics and decision theory and Savage's 'Sure-Thing Principle' is a fundamental element of it. It has been put forward that real-life situations…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-03-28 Diederik Aerts , Bart D'Hooghe , Sandro Sozzo

Despite the impressive success of quantum structures to model long-standing human judgement and decision puzzles, the {\it quantum cognition research programme} still faces challenges about its explanatory power. Indeed, quantum models…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-04-05 Sandro Sozzo

The 'expected utility hypothesis' and 'Savage's Sure-Thing Principle' are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the 'Allais' and 'Ellsberg paradoxes'. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-01-07 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo

We provide here a general mathematical framework to model attitudes towards ambiguity which uses the formalism of quantum theory as a ``purely mathematical formalism, detached from any physical interpretation''. We show that the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Sandro Sozzo

The 1961 Ellsberg paradox is typically seen as an empirical challenge to the subjective expected utility framework. Experiments based on Ellsberg's design have spawned a variety of new approaches, culminating in a new paradigm represented…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-01-10 Christoph Kuzmics , Brian W. Rogers , Xiannong Zhang

The Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes reveal that expected utility theory is problematical when real subjects take decisions under uncertainty. Suitable generalizations of expected utility exist which attempt to solve the Ellsberg paradox, but…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-01-08 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo , Jocelyn Tapia

In this paper, we propose an interpretation of the Hilbert space method used in quantum theory in the context of decision making under uncertainty. For a clear comparison we will stay as close as possible to the framework of SEU suggested…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-07-25 Juergen Eichberger , Hans Juergen Pirner

Empirical evidence has confirmed that quantum effects occur frequently also outside the microscopic domain, while quantum structures satisfactorily model various situations in several areas of science, including biological, cognitive and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-31 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo , Jocelyn Tapia

The Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes show that the expected utility hypothesis and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are violated in real life decisions. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely accepted. On the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-01-08 Diederik Aerts , Sandro Sozzo

The applications of techniques from statistical (and classical) mechanics to model interesting problems in economics and finance has produced valuable results. The principal movement which has steered this research direction is known under…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-23 Emmanuel Haven , Sandro Sozzo

The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-14 V. I. Yukalov , D. Sornette

Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-28 M. Favre , A. Wittwer , H. R. Heinimann , V. I. Yukalov , D. Sornette

In this paper, we introduce a new model of selection behavior under risk that describes an essential cognitive process for comparing values of objects and making a selection decision. This model is constructed by the quantum-like approach…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-18 Masanari Asano , Irina Basieva , Andrei Khrennikov , Masanori Ohya , Yoshiharu Tanaka

Experiments in cognitive science and decision theory show that the ways in which people combine concepts and make decisions cannot be described by classical logic and probability theory. This has serious implications for applied disciplines…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-08 Diederik Aerts , Liane Gabora , Sandro Sozzo , Tomas Veloz

We present the fundamentals of the quantum theoretical approach we have developed in the last decade to model cognitive phenomena that resisted modeling by means of classical logical and probabilistic structures, like Boolean, Kolmogorovian…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2023-02-27 Diederik Aerts , Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi , Sandro Sozzo , Tomas Veloz

We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-05 V. I. Yukalov , D. Sornette

The formalism of quantum theory in Hilbert space has been applied with success to the modeling and explanation of several cognitive phenomena, whereas traditional cognitive approaches were problematical. However, this 'quantum cognition…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Diederik Aerts , Lyneth Beltran , Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi , Sandro Sozzo , Tomas Veloz
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