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We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Chenwei Fang , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

Sampled environment transitions are a critical input to deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms. Current DRL benchmarks often allow for the cheap and easy generation of large amounts of samples such that perceived progress in DRL does…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-10 Florian E. Dorner

It is crucial to provide compatible treatment schemes for a disease according to various symptoms at different stages. However, most classification methods might be ineffective in accurately classifying a disease that holds the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Jianguo Chen , Kenli Li , Huigui Rong , Kashif Bilal , Nan Yang , Keqin Li

Decision trees are powerful for predictive modeling but often suffer from high variance when modeling continuous relationships. While algorithms like Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) excel at capturing such continuous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 William Pattie , Arvind Krishna

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

Longitudinal observational patient data can be used to investigate the causal effects of time-varying treatments on time-to-event outcomes. Several methods have been developed for controlling for the time-dependent confounding that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-08 Ruth H. Keogh , Jon Michael Gran , Shaun R. Seaman , Gwyneth Davies , Stijn Vansteelandt

There is growing interest in platform trials that allow for adding of new treatment arms as the trial progresses as well as being able to stop treatments part way through the trial for either lack of benefit/futility or for superiority. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Peter Greenstreet , Thomas Jaki , Alun Bedding , Chris Harbron , Pavel Mozgunov

Individualized treatment rules/recommendations (ITRs) aim to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatments to the characteristics of each individual. However, when there are many treatment groups, existing methods face significant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Ke Zhu , Jianing Chu , Ilya Lipkovich , Wenyu Ye , Shu Yang

The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is an experimental design that can be used to develop optimal mobile health interventions. In MRTs, interventions in the form of notifications or messages are sent through smart phones to individuals,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-14 Shuangning Li , Stefan Wager

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

Remarkable progress has been made in difference-in-differences (DID) approaches to causal inference that estimate the average effect of a treatment on the treated (ATT). Of these, the semiparametric DID (SDID) approach incorporates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Takamichi Baba , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) using observational data is often challenged by nonignorable missing covariates arsing from informative monitoring of patients in clinical practice. To address nonignorable missingness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Jian Sun , Bo Fu , Li Su

Numerous publications have now addressed the principles of designing, analyzing, and reporting the results of, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials. In contrast, there is little research available pertaining to the design and analysis of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason

In the last decade, machine learning techniques have gained popularity for estimating causal effects. One machine learning approach that can be used for estimating an average treatment effect is Double/debiased machine learning (DML)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Daniele Ballinari , Nora Bearth

Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial is said to occur when a patient randomized to one treatment arm switches to another treatment arm during follow-up. This can occur at the point of disease progression, whereby patients in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Andrew Ying , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials mimic the actual treatment processes experienced by physicians and patients in clinical settings and inform the comparative effectiveness of dynamic treatment regimes. In such trials,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Zi Wang , Yu Cheng , Abdus S. Wahed

A platform trial is an innovative clinical trial design that uses a master protocol to evaluate multiple treatments, where patients are often assigned to different subsets of treatment arms based on individual characteristics, enrollment…

Background: Clinical diagnosis is typically reached by following a series of steps recommended by guidelines authored by colleges of experts. Accordingly, guidelines play a crucial role in rationalizing clinical decisions but suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Lillian Muyama , Antoine Neuraz , Adrien Coulet

The Dynamic Task Assignment Problem (DTAP) concerns matching resources to tasks in real time while minimizing some objectives, like resource costs or task cycle time. In this work, we consider a DTAP variant where every task is a case…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Riccardo Lo Bianco , Willem van Jaarsveld , Jeroen Middelhuis , Luca Begnardi , Remco Dijkman