Related papers: Option market (in)efficiency and implied volatilit…
We show that the frequent claim that the implied tree prices exotic options consistently with the market is untrue if the local volatilities are subject to change and the market is arbitrage-free. In the process, we analyse -- in the most…
We derive an explicit asymptotic approximation for the implied volatilities of Call options written on bonds assuming the short-rate is described by an affine short-rate model. For specific affine short-rate models, we perform numerical…
Using machine learning and alternative data for the prediction of financial markets has been a popular topic in recent years. Many financial variables such as stock price, historical volatility and trade volume have already been through…
The robust option pricing problem is to find upper and lower bounds on fair prices of financial claims using only the most minimal assumptions. It contrasts with the classical, model-based approach and gained prominence in the wake of the…
We study convexity and monotonicity properties of option prices in a model with jumps using the fact that these prices satisfy certain parabolic integro-differential equations. Conditions are provided under which preservation of convexity…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
The measures of roughness of the volatility in the litterature are based on the realized volatility of high frequency data. Some authors show that this leads to a biased estimate, and does not necessarily indicate roughness of the…
We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a…
Implied volatility IV is a key metric in financial markets, reflecting market expectations of future price fluctuations. Research has explored IV's relationship with moneyness, focusing on its connection to the implied Hurst exponent H. Our…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
We introduce a simple stochastic volatility model, whose novelty consists in taking into account hitting times of the asset price, and study the optimal stopping problem corresponding to a put option whose time horizon (after the asset…
In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…
In financial markets, accurately measuring the risk of future fluctuations in asset prices is of paramount importance. Studies such as Carr and Madan have shown that the expected value of the quadratic variation of log prices can be…
We introduce a statistical test for simultaneous jumps in the price of a financial asset and its volatility process. The proposed test is based on high-frequency data and is robust to market microstructure frictions. For the test, local…
We develop closed-form expansions for the implied volatility of VIX options within the class of forward variance models. Our approach builds on weak-approximation techniques for VIX option prices and yields explicit implied volatility…
It is well-known that, in the Bachelier model, when asset prices and volatilities are uncorrelated, the implied volatility coincides with the fair value of the volatility swap. In this paper, via classical It\^o calculus and Taylor…
In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…
The implied volatility is a crucial element of any financial toolbox, since it is used for quoting and the hedging of options as well as for model calibration. In contrast to the Black-Scholes formula its inverse, the implied volatility, is…
We propose a new model for the forecasting of both the implied volatility surfaces and the underlying asset price. In the spirit of Guyon and Lekeufack (2023) who are interested in the dependence of volatility indices (e.g. the VIX) on the…
It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…