Related papers: On Learning Markov Chains
We can directly sample from the conditional distribution of any log-affine model. The algorithm is a Markov chain on a bounded integer lattice, and its transition probability is the ratio of the UMVUE (uniformly minimum variance unbiased…
Modeling the time evolution of discrete sets of items (e.g., genetic mutations) is a fundamental problem in many biomedical applications. We approach this problem through the lens of continuous-time Markov chains, and show that the…
We consider the classical problem of learning, with arbitrary accuracy, the natural parameters of a $k$-parameter truncated \textit{minimal} exponential family from i.i.d. samples in a computationally and statistically efficient manner. We…
Many applications in network analysis require algorithms to sample uniformly at random from the set of all graphs with a prescribed degree sequence. We present a Markov chain based approach which converges to the uniform distribution of all…
The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of(undirected) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the sampling. The…
In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…
Most existing literature on supervised machine learning assumes that the training dataset is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many real-world problems exhibit temporal dependence and strong correlations between the marginal…
We study the computation of lower and upper probabilities of hitting a target set of states for imprecise Markov chains, where transition uncertainty is modelled by a convex set of transition matrices. In the precise case, hitting…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
Designing learning algorithms that are resistant to perturbations of the underlying data distribution is a problem of wide practical and theoretical importance. We present a general approach to this problem focusing on unsupervised…
A standard approach in pattern classification is to estimate the distributions of the label classes, and then to apply the Bayes classifier to the estimates of the distributions in order to classify unlabeled examples. As one might expect,…
We develop and analyze a general technique for learning with an unknown distribution drift. Given a sequence of independent observations from the last $T$ steps of a drifting distribution, our algorithm agnostically learns a family of…
An important problem arising in the study of complex networks, for instance in community detection and motif finding, is the sampling of graphs with fixed degree sequence. The equivalent problem of generating random 0,1 matrices with fixed…
Understanding and predicting how complex systems respond to external perturbations is a central challenge in nonequilibrium statistical physics. Here we consider continuous-time Markov networks, which we subject to perturbations along a…
We study stochastic optimization algorithms for constrained nonconvex stochastic optimization problems with Markovian data. In particular, we focus on the case when the transition kernel of the Markov chain is state-dependent. Such…
We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…
We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…
We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
We consider the problem of estimating the support size of a discrete distribution whose minimum non-zero mass is at least $ \frac{1}{k}$. Under the independent sampling model, we show that the sample complexity, i.e., the minimal sample…