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We revisit the problem of selecting an item from $n$ choices that appear before us in random sequential order so as to minimize the expected rank of the item selected. In particular, we examine the stopping rule where we reject the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-10 Béla Bajnok , Svetoslav Semov

Robbins' problem of optimal stopping asks one to minimise the expected {\it rank} of observation chosen by some nonanticipating stopping rule. We settle a conjecture regarding the {\it value} of the stopped variable under the rule optimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-10 Alexander Gnedin , Alexander Iksanov

For an infinite-horizon continuous-time optimal stopping problem under non-exponential discounting, we look for an optimal equilibrium, which generates larger values than any other equilibrium does on the entire state space. When the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-15 Yu-Jui Huang , Zhou Zhou

We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Erhan Bayraktar , Christopher W. Miller

In this paper we study simulation based optimization algorithms for solving discrete time optimal stopping problems. This type of algorithms became popular among practioneers working in the area of quantitative finance. Using large…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2009-09-22 Denis Belomestny

In the classical optimal stopping problem, a player is given a sequence of random variables $X_1\ldots X_n$ with known distributions. After observing the realization of $X_i$, the player can either accept the observed reward from $X_i$ and…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2020-07-24 Shipra Agrawal , Jay Sethuraman , Xingyu Zhang

We develop a Bayesian model for decision-making under time pressure with endogenous information acquisition. In our model, the decision maker decides when to observe (costly) information by sampling an underlying continuous-time stochastic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-10-25 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

In this paper we consider two variants of the Secretary problem: The Best-or-Worst and the Postdoc problems. We extend previous work by considering that the number of objects is not known and follows either a discrete Uniform distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-13 L. Bayon , P. Fortuny , J. M. Grau , M. M Ruiz , M. A. Oller-Marcen

This survey is focused on certain sequential decision-making problems that involve optimizing over probability functions. We discuss the relevance of these problems for learning and control. The survey is organized around a framework that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-13 Emiland Garrabe , Giovanni Russo

In this paper, we discuss a stochastic decision problem of optimally selecting the order in which to try $n$ opportunities that may yield an uncertain reward in the future. The motivation came out from pure curiosity, after an informal…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-27 Giuseppe C. Calafiore

We consider the problem of a decision-maker searching for information on multiple alternatives when information is learned on all alternatives simultaneously. The decision-maker has a running cost of searching for information, and has to…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-04-13 T. Tony Ke , Wenpin Tang , J. Miguel Villas-Boas , Yuming Zhang

We consider two variants of the secretary problem, the\emph{ Best-or-Worst} and the \emph{Postdoc} problems, which are closely related. First, we prove that both variants, in their standard form with binary payoff 1 or 0, share the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-23 L. Bayon , P. Fortuny Ayuso , J. M. Grau , A. M. Oller-Marcen , M. M. Ruiz

This paper re-examines the use of response time to infer problem complexity. It revisits a canonical Wald model of optimal stopping, taking signal-to-noise ratio as a measure of problem complexity. While choice quality is monotone in…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-06-19 Duarte Gonçalves

The last success problem is an optimal stopping problem that aims to maximize the probability of stopping on the last success in a sequence of independent $n$ Bernoulli trials. In the classical setting where complete information about the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-24 Toru Yoshinaga , Yasushi Kawase

In the secretary problem we are faced with an online sequence of elements with values. Upon seeing an element we have to make an irrevocable take-it-or-leave-it decision. The goal is to maximize the probability of picking the element of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-11-17 José Correa , Andrés Cristi , Laurent Feuilloley , Tim Oosterwijk , Alexandros Tsigonias-Dimitriadis

How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-01 Théo Durandard , Matteo Camboni

In a classical optimal stopping problem the aim is to maximize the expected value of a functional of a diffusion evaluated at a stopping time. This note considers optimal stopping problems beyond this paradigm. We study problems in which…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-04 Vicky Henderson , David Hobson , Matthew Zeng

Optimal stopping problems consider the question of deciding when to stop an observation-generating process in order to maximize a return. We examine the problem of simultaneously learning and planning in such domains, when data is collected…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-25 Karan Goel , Christoph Dann , Emma Brunskill

We discuss importance sampling of exit problems that involve unbounded stopping times; examples are mean first passage times, transition rates or committor probabilities in molecular dynamics. The naive application of variance minimization…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster

Salespeople frequently face the dynamic screening decision of whether to persist in a conversation or abandon it to pursue the next lead. Yet, little is known about how these decisions are made, whether they are efficient, or how to improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Emaad Manzoor , Eva Ascarza , Oded Netzer