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Do LMs infer the semantics of text from co-occurrence patterns in their training data? Merrill et al. (2022) argue that, in theory, sentence co-occurrence probabilities predicted by an optimal LM should reflect the entailment relationship…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-18 William Merrill , Zhaofeng Wu , Norihito Naka , Yoon Kim , Tal Linzen

Recent psycholinguistic studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict human reading times, which has been speculated to be due…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Byung-Doh Oh , William Schuler

Surprisal theory posits that the cognitive effort required to comprehend a word is determined by its contextual predictability, quantified as surprisal. Traditionally, surprisal theory treats words as distinct entities, overlooking any…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Clara Meister , Mario Giulianelli , Tiago Pimentel

Language-model (LM) surprisal is widely used as a proxy for contextual predictability and has been reported to correlate with metaphor novelty judgments. However, surprisal is tightly intertwined with lexical frequency. We explore this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Omar Momen , Sina Zarrieß

By positing a relationship between naturalistic reading times and information-theoretic surprisal, surprisal theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008) provides a natural interface between language models and psycholinguistic models. This paper…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Yiding Hao , Simon Mendelsohn , Rachel Sterneck , Randi Martinez , Robert Frank

Novel metaphor comprehension involves complex semantic processes and linguistic creativity, making it an interesting task for studying language models (LMs). This study investigates whether surprisal, a probabilistic measure of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Omar Momen , Emilie Sitter , Berenike Herrmann , Sina Zarrieß

When humans read text, they fixate some words and skip others. However, there have been few attempts to explain skipping behavior with computational models, as most existing work has focused on predicting reading times (e.g.,~using…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Michael Hahn , Frank Keller

Are the predictions of humans and language models affected by similar things? Research suggests that while comprehending language, humans make predictions about upcoming words, with more predictable words being processed more easily.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-11 James A. Michaelov , Benjamin K. Bergen

Shannon's information entropy measures of the uncertainty of an event's outcome. If learning about a system reflects a decrease in uncertainty, then a plausible intuition is that learning should be accompanied by a decrease in the entropy…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-02-20 Paul E. Smaldino

We show that the predictability of letters in written English texts depends strongly on their position in the word. The first letters are usually the least easy to predict. This agrees with the intuitive notion that words are well defined…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-24 Thomas Schürmann , Peter Grassberger

This work presents a detailed linguistic analysis into why larger Transformer-based pre-trained language models with more parameters and lower perplexity nonetheless yield surprisal estimates that are less predictive of human reading times.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-26 Byung-Doh Oh , William Schuler

Suspense is an affective response to narrative text that is believed to involve complex cognitive processes in humans. Several psychological models have been developed to describe this phenomenon and the circumstances under which text might…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Glenn Matlin , Devin Zhang , Rodrigo Barroso Loza , Diana M. Popescu , Joni Isbell , Chandreyi Chakraborty , Mark Riedl

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Samuel Kiegeland , Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson , Tim Vieira , Ryan Cotterell

Recent work has found that contemporary language models such as transformers can become so good at next-word prediction that the probabilities they calculate become worse for predicting reading time. In this paper, we propose that this can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-11 James A. Michaelov , Roger P. Levy

Recent theoretical advancement of information density in natural language has brought the following question on desk: To what degree does natural language exhibit periodicity pattern in its encoded information? We address this question by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Yulin Ou , Yu Wang , Yang Xu , Hendrik Buschmeier

This paper investigates the use of word surprisal, a measure of the predictability of a word in a given context, as a feature to aid speech synthesis prosody. We explore how word surprisal extracted from large language models (LLMs)…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-19 Sofoklis Kakouros , Juraj Šimko , Martti Vainio , Antti Suni

Reasoning about unpredicted change consists in explaining observations by events; we propose here an approach for explaining time-stamped observations by surprises, which are simple events consisting in the change of the truth value of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-10 Florence Dupin de Saint-Cyr , Jérôme Lang

Background. From information theory, surprisal is a measurement of how unexpected an event is. Statistical language models provide a probabilistic approximation of natural languages, and because surprisal is constructed with the probability…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-18 James Caddy , Markus Wagner , Christoph Treude , Earl T. Barr , Miltiadis Allamanis

The prosody of a spoken word is determined by its surrounding context. In incremental text-to-speech synthesis, where the synthesizer produces an output before it has access to the complete input, the full context is often unknown which can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Brooke Stephenson , Thomas Hueber , Laurent Girin , Laurent Besacier

Recent studies have shown that as Transformer-based language models become larger and are trained on very large amounts of data, the fit of their surprisal estimates to naturalistic human reading times degrades. The current work presents a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Byung-Doh Oh , Shisen Yue , William Schuler