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Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

In this paper, we study the problem of transfer learning with the attribute data. In the transfer learning problem, we want to leverage the data of the auxiliary and the target domains to build an effective model for the classification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-03 Fang Su , Jing-Yan Wang

Effective intervention strategies for epidemics rely on the identification of their origin and on the robustness of the predictions made by network disease models. We introduce a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework to infer model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-02 Karen Larson , Clark Bowman , Zhizhong Chen , Panagiotis Hadjidoukas , Costas Papadimitriou , Petros Koumoutsakos , Anastasios Matzavinos

In the domain of air traffic control (ATC) systems, efforts to train a practical automatic speech recognition (ASR) model always faces the problem of small training samples since the collection and annotation of speech samples are expert-…

Sound · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Yi Lin , Qin Li , Bo Yang , Zhen Yan , Huachun Tan , Zhengmao Chen

It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Petri Kontkanen , Petri Myllymaki , Henry Tirri

Reconstructing the evolutionary history relating a collection of molecular sequences is the main subject of modern Bayesian phylogenetic inference. However, the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be inefficient due to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Tianyu Xie , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard , Cheng Zhang

Continual learning models allow to learn and adapt to new changes and tasks over time. However, in continual and sequential learning scenarios in which the models are trained using different data with various distributions, neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-17 HongLin Li , Payam Barnaghi , Shirin Enshaeifar , Frieder Ganz

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Learning transferable knowledge across similar but different settings is a fundamental component of generalized intelligence. In this paper, we approach the transfer learning challenge from a causal theory perspective. Our agent is endowed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-27 Mark Edmonds , Xiaojian Ma , Siyuan Qi , Yixin Zhu , Hongjing Lu , Song-Chun Zhu

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-23 Hannah Craddock , Simon EF Spencer , Xavier Didelot

Semantic segmentation is an important sub-task for many applications, but pixel-level ground truth labeling is costly and there is a tendency to overfit the training data, limiting generalization. Unsupervised domain adaptation can…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-02 Yue Wang , Yuke Li , James H. Elder , Runmin Wu , Huchuan Lu

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

Despite the recent success in probabilistic modeling and their applications, generative models trained using traditional inference techniques struggle to adapt to new distributions, even when the target distribution may be closely related…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Mike Wu , Kristy Choi , Noah Goodman , Stefano Ermon

The models and weights of prior trained Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) created to perform automated isotopic classification of time-sequenced gamma-ray spectra, were utilized to provide source domain knowledge as training on new…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-03-25 Eric T. Moore , Johanna L. Turk , William P. Ford , Nathan J. Hoteling , Lance S. McLean

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Chuanhui Liu , Xiao Wang

The key issues pertaining to collection of epidemic disease data for our analysis purposes are that it is a labour intensive, time consuming and expensive process resulting in availability of sparse sample data which we use to develop…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Terence Fusco , Yaxin Bi , Haiying Wang , Fiona Browne

Sampling trajectories from a distribution followed by ranking them based on a specified cost function is a common approach in autonomous driving. Typically, the sampling distribution is hand-crafted (e.g a Gaussian, or a grid). Recently,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Simon Idoko , Basant Sharma , Arun Kumar Singh