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Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

We consider the problem of approximating optimal in the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) sense nonlinear filters in a discrete time setting, exploiting properties of stochastically convergent state process approximations. More…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-15 Dionysios S. Kalogerias , Athina P. Petropulu

We present a dynamic subspace approach for efficiently approximating large-scale systems by learning time-continuous trajectories on the Grassmannian manifold. By parameterizing a low-dimensional basis as a geodesic path, the method allows…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Jack DeChant , Rudy Geelen , Shane A. McQuarrie , Johann Guilleminot

We prove that stochastic gradient descent efficiently converges to the global optimizer of the maximum likelihood objective of an unknown linear time-invariant dynamical system from a sequence of noisy observations generated by the system.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Moritz Hardt , Tengyu Ma , Benjamin Recht

Inference and simulation in the context of high-dimensional dynamical systems remain computationally challenging problems. Some form of dimensionality reduction is required to make the problem tractable in general. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-04 Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig , Jörg Nick , Filip Tronarp

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-14 Ludovico Theo Giorgini , Andre N. Souza , Peter J. Schmid

Systems composed of large numbers of interacting agents often admit an effective coarse-grained description in terms of a multidimensional stochastic dynamical system, driven by small-amplitude intrinsic noise. In applications to…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-30 Todd L. Parsons , Tim Rogers

We consider complex dynamical systems showing metastable behavior but no local separation of fast and slow time scales. The article raises the question of whether such systems exhibit a low-dimensional manifold supporting its effective…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-07-10 Andreas Bittracher , Péter Koltai , Stefan Klus , Ralf Banisch , Michael Dellnitz , Christof Schütte

In this paper we develop an $L_2$-theory for stochastic partial differential equations driven by L\'evy processes. The coefficients of the equations are random functions depending on time and space variables, and no smoothness assumption of…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-26 Zhen-Qing Chen , Kyeong-Hun Kim

In the present work, we establish the approximation of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) driven by cylindrical {\alpha}-stable L\'evy processes via modulation or amplitude equations. We study SPDEs with a cubic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-06-30 Shenglan Yuan , Dirk Blömker

The increasing availability of geometric data has motivated the need for information processing over non-Euclidean domains modeled as manifolds. The building block for information processing architectures with desirable theoretical…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-22 Zhiyang Wang , Luana Ruiz , Alejandro Ribeiro

Bayesian filtering is a well-known problem that aims to estimate plausible states of a dynamical system from observations. Among existing approaches to solve this problem, particle filters are theoretically exact for non-linear dynamics and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Thomas Savary , François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

Devising optimal interventions for constraining stochastic systems is a challenging endeavour that has to confront the interplay between randomness and nonlinearity. Existing methods for identifying the necessary dynamical adjustments…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-18 Dimitra Maoutsa , Manfred Opper

We present new algorithms and fast implementations to find efficient approximations for modelling stochastic processes. For many numerical computations it is essential to develop finite approximations for stochastic processes. While the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Kipngeno Benard Kirui , Georg Ch. Pflug , Alois Pichler

Complex dynamic systems can be investigated by fitting mechanistic stochastic dynamic models to time series data. In this context, commonly used Monte Carlo inference procedures for model selection and parameter estimation quickly become…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Jesse Wheeler , Aaron J. Abkemeier , Edward L. Ionides

This article proposes for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) driven by additive noise, a novel approach for the approximate parameterizations of the ``small'' scales by the ``large'' ones, along with the derivaton of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2013-11-14 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Honghu Liu , Shouhong Wang

The simulation of large nonlinear dynamical systems, including systems generated by discretization of hyperbolic partial differential equations, can be computationally demanding. Such systems are important in both fluid and kinetic…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2021-06-14 Alexander Engel , Graeme Smith , Scott E. Parker

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Bhaskara Marthi , Hanna Pasula , Stuart Russell , Yuval Peres

The purpose of this note is to prove that the flatness of an invariant manifold for a semilinear stochastic partial differential equation driven by L\'{e}vy processes is at least equal to the number of driving sources with small jumps. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-21 Stefan Tappe

The work concerns the nonlinear filtering problem for a class of multiscale McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems. First of all, by a Poisson equation we prove that the solution of the slow part for a multiscale system weakly converges to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Huijie Qiao , Wanlin Wei