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Microscopic models describing a whole of economic interactions in a closed society are considered. The presence of a tax system combined with a redistribution process is taken into account, as well as the occurrence of tax evasion. In…
Taking the European Central Bank unconventional policies as a reference, we suggest a class of Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) taylored to analyze the impact such policies have on stock market volatility. The new set of models, called MEM…
Recent research has shown that criminal networks have complex organizational structures, but whether this can be used to predict static and dynamic properties of criminal networks remains little explored. Here, by combining graph…
In this paper we present a simplified model of a proportional taxation system where citizens decide whether to pay taxes or evade them. We initially derive a dynamic equation for the fraction of evaders and then present both its critical…
The goal of this paper is to summarize methodologies used in extracting entities and topics from a database of criminal records and from a database of newspapers. Statistical models had successfully been used in studying the topics of…
We offer evidence that federal emergency assistance (FEMA) in the days following natural disasters mitigate evictions in comparison to similar emergency scenarios where FEMA aid is not provided. We find an approximate 10.9% increase in…
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper…
Contractual relationships between the state and private firms involving large irreversible investments are vulnerable to sovereign hold-up risk: anticipating that the state can unilaterally revise terms once capital is sunk, firms may…
Political fragmentation in Africa poses to a significant challenge to effective governance and stability. Traditional measures of party system fragmentation, such as the Effective Number of Parties (ENP) index, often fail to capture the…
In this paper, making use of recent statistical physics techniques and models, we address the specific role of randomness in financial markets, both at the micro and the macro level. In particular, we review some recent results obtained…
Industries can enter one country first, and then enter its neighbors' markets. Firms in the industry can expand trade network through the export behavior of other firms in the industry. If a firm is dependent on a few foreign markets, the…
This paper shows that utilizing information on the extensive margin of financially constrained households can narrow down the set of admissible preferences in a large class of macroeconomic models. Estimates based on Spanish aggregate data…
Illegal fishing is prevalent throughout the world and heavily impacts the health of our oceans, the sustainability and profitability of fisheries, and even acts to destabilize geopolitical relations. To achieve the United Nations'…
This paper presents a new rationale for a self-interested economic elite voluntarily extending property rights. When agents make endogenous investment decisions, there is a commitment problem. Ex-post, the elite face strong incentives to…
I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict "externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by creating an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a…
This paper presents a link analysis approach for identifying privileged documents by constructing a network of human entities derived from email header metadata. Entities are classified as either counsel or non-counsel based on a predefined…
Pareto law, which states that wealth distribution in societies have a power-law tail, has been a subject of intensive investigations in statistical physics community. Several models have been employed to explain this behavior. However, most…
A large body of literature in economics and political science examines the impact of democracy and political freedoms on various outcomes using cross-country comparisons. This paper explores the possibility that any positive impact of…
A stream of unstructured news can be a valuable source of hidden relations between different entities, such as financial institutions, countries, or persons. We present an approach to continuously collect online news, recognize relevant…
This study examines how foreign aid and institutions affect entrepreneurship activity following natural disasters. We use insights from the entrepreneurship, development, and institutions literature to develop a model of entrepreneurship…