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Polynomial Chaos Expansions represent a powerful tool to simulate stochastic models of dynamical systems. Yet, deriving the expansion's coefficients for complex systems might require a significant and non-trivial manipulation of the model,…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-13 Lorenzo Fagiano , Mustafa Khammash

Characterizing the interior structure of exoplanets is an inverse problem often solved using Bayesian inference, but this approach is hampered by the high computational cost of planetary structure models. To overcome this barrier, we…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-22 Tijn De Wringer , Caroline Dorn , Emily O. Garvin , Stefano Marelli

The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-28 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson

Recently surrogate functions based on the tail inequalities were developed to evaluate the chance constraints in the context of evolutionary computation and several Pareto optimization algorithms using these surrogates were successfully…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Xiankun Yan , Aneta Neumann , Frank Neumann

A surrogate model approximates a computationally expensive solver. Polynomial Chaos is a method to construct surrogate models by summing combinations of carefully chosen polynomials. The polynomials are chosen to respect the probability…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-06-29 Thomas A. McCourt , Brodie Lawson , Fengde Zhou , Bevan Thompson , Stephen Tyson , Diane Donovan

Efficient surrogate modelling is a key requirement for uncertainty quantification in data-driven scenarios. In this work, a novel approach of using Sparse Random Features for surrogate modelling in combination with self-supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Maternus Herold , Anna Veselovska , Jonas Jehle , Felix Krahmer

Compressive sampling has been widely used for sparse polynomial chaos (PC) approximation of stochastic functions. The recovery accuracy of compressive sampling highly depends on the incoherence properties of the measurement matrix. In this…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-17 Negin Alemazkoor , Hadi Meidani

Many physics and engineering applications demand Partial Differential Equations (PDE) property evaluations that are traditionally computed with resource-intensive high-fidelity numerical solvers. Data-driven surrogate models provide an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Raphaël Pestourie , Youssef Mroueh , Chris Rackauckas , Payel Das , Steven G. Johnson

Polynomial chaos based methods enable the efficient computation of output variability in the presence of input uncertainty in complex models. Consequently, they have been used extensively for propagating uncertainty through a wide variety…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-18 Tuhin Sahai

State estimation is the task of approximately reconstructing a solution $u$ of a parametric partial differential equation when the parameter vector $y$ is unknown and the only information is $m$ linear measurements of $u$. In [Cohen et.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-09 James A. Nichols

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer interpretable insights into machine learning predictions by answering ``what if?" questions. However, in real-world settings where models are frequently updated, existing counterfactual explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Jamie Duell , Xiuyi Fan

Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-18 David N. John , Livia Stohrer , Claudia Schillings , Michael Schick , Vincent Heuveline

One of the open problems in the field of forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the ability to form accurate assessments of uncertainty having only incomplete information about the distribution of random inputs. Another challenge is to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Ling Guo , Akil Narayan , Yongle Liu , Tao Zhou

This study introduces a non-intrusive approach in the context of low-rank separated representation to construct a surrogate of high-dimensional stochastic functions, e.g., PDEs/ODEs, in order to decrease the computational cost of Markov…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-12-25 AbdoulAhad Validi

Gradient-enhanced Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has received recent attention, in which the derivatives of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) with respect to the uncertain parameters are utilized to improve the surrogate approximation.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-23 Ji Peng , Jerrad Hampton , Alireza Doostan

A probabilistic performance-oriented control design optimization approach is introduced for flight systems. Aiming at estimating rare-event probabilities accurately and efficiently, subset simulation is combined with surrogate modeling…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-20 Dalong Shi , Florian Holzapfel

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

There is now significant historical data available on decision making in organizations, consisting of the decision problem, what decisions were made, and how desirable the outcomes were. Using this data, it is possible to learn a surrogate…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Olivier Francon , Santiago Gonzalez , Babak Hodjat , Elliot Meyerson , Risto Miikkulainen , Xin Qiu , Hormoz Shahrzad

Data-driven surrogate modeling has emerged as a promising approach for reducing computational expenses of multiscale simulations. Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) is a common choice for modeling of path-dependent behavior. However, previous…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Yangzi He , Shabnam J. Semnani

Certain classes of CUR algorithms, also referred to as cross or pseudoskeleton algorithms, are widely used for low-rank matrix approximation when direct access to all matrix entries is costly. Their key advantage lies in constructing a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Grishma Palkar , Hessam Babaee
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