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Related papers: KPZ equation tails for general initial data

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We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-04 Igor Halperin

For first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with i.i.d. bounded edge weights, we consider the upper tail large deviation event; i.e., the rare situation where the first passage time between two points at distance $n$, is macroscopically…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-05 Riddhipratim Basu , Shirshendu Ganguly , Allan Sly

We consider the half-line stochastic heat equation (SHE) with Robin boundary parameter $A = -\frac{1}{2}$. Under narrow wedge initial condition, we compute every positive (including non-integer) Lyapunov exponents of the half-line SHE. As a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Yier Lin

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We investigate the upper tail distribution of the partition function of the directed polymer in a random environment on $\mathbb Z^d$ in the weak disorder phase. We show that the distribution of the infinite volume partition function…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Stefan Junk , Hubert Lacoin

We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-07 Christos Pelekis

Three interrelated questions concerning Kerr spacetime late-time scalar-field tails are considered numerically, specifically the evolutions of generic and non-generic initial data sets, the excitation of "up" modes, and the resolution of an…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2011-01-17 Lior M. Burko , Gaurav Khanna

Let $P$ be a polynomial of degree $d$ in independent Bernoulli random variables which has zero mean and unit variance. The Bonami hypercontractivity bound implies that the probability that $|P| > t$ decays exponentially in $t^{2/d}$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-21 Bo'az Klartag , Sasha Sodin

We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

The logarithm of the diagonal matrix element of a high power of a random matrix converges to the Cole-Hopf solution of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation in the sense of one-point distributions.

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-14 Vadim Gorin , Sasha Sodin

We consider the early time regime of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation in $1+1$ dimensions in curved (or droplet) geometry. We show that for short time $t$, the probability distribution $P(H,t)$ of the height $H$ at a given point $x$…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-04-26 Pierre Le Doussal , Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso , Gregory Schehr

We derive the KPZ equation as a continuum limit of height functions in asymmetric simple exclusion processes with drift that depends on the local particle configuration. To our knowledge, it is a first such result for a class of particle…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-11 Kevin Yang

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Nikola Zlatanov

Understanding the generalization properties of heavy-tailed stochastic optimization algorithms has attracted increasing attention over the past years. While illuminating interesting aspects of stochastic optimizers by using heavy-tailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Benjamin Dupuis , Umut Şimşekli

In this short note, we derive a precise tail expansion for Gaussian multiplicative chaos (GMC) associated to the 2d GFF on the unit disk with zero average on the unit circle (and variants). More specifically, we show that to first order the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-04 Rémi Rhodes , Vincent Vargas

The one-point distribution of the height for the continuum Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation is determined numerically using the mapping to the directed polymer in a random potential at high temperature. Using an importance sampling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-05 Alexander K. Hartmann , Alexandre Krajenbrink , Pierre Le Doussal

The study of transversal fluctuation of the optimal path has been a crucial aspect of the Kadar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. In this paper, we establish a new probability lower bound, with optimal exponential order, for the rare…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Xiao Shen

We show how our previous result based on the replica Bethe ansatz for the Kardar Parisi Zhang (KPZ) equation with the "half-flat" initial condition leads to the Airy$_2$ to Airy$_1$ (i.e. GUE to GOE) universal crossover one-point height…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-18 Pierre Le Doussal

We consider the following oriented percolation model of $\mathbb {N} \times \mathbb{Z}^d$: we equip $\mathbb {N}\times \mathbb{Z}^d$ with the edge set $\{[(n,x),(n+1,y)] | n\in \mathbb {N}, x,y\in \mathbb{Z}^d\}$, and we say that each edge…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-08 Hubert Lacoin