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We investigate the high-probability estimation of discrete distributions from an \iid sample under $\chi^2$-divergence loss. Although the minimax risk in expectation is well understood, its high-probability counterpart remains largely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Sirine Louati

We present a novel approach to estimating discrete distributions with (potentially) infinite support in the total variation metric. In a departure from the established paradigm, we make no structural assumptions whatsoever on the sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Doron Cohen , Aryeh Kontorovich , Geoffrey Wolfer

Many functionals of interest in statistics and machine learning can be written as minimizers of expected loss functions. Such functionals are called $M$-estimands, and can be estimated by $M$-estimators -- minimizers of empirical average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Arunav Bhowmick , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Asymptotic theory for M-estimation problems usually focuses on the asymptotic convergence of the sample descriptor, defined as the minimizer of the sample loss function. Here, we explore a related question and formulate asymptotic theory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-15 Benjamin Eltzner

Suppose that the normal model is used for data $Y_1,\ldots,Y_n$, but that the true distribution is a t-distribution with location and scale parameters $\xi$ and $\sigma$ and $m$ degrees of freedom. The normal model corresponds to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Nils Lid Hjort

In this paper, we prove a local limit theorem for the chi-square distribution with $r > 0$ degrees of freedom and noncentrality parameter $\lambda \geq 0$. We use it to develop refined normal approximations for the survival function. Our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-29 Frédéric Ouimet

This paper investigates the finite-sample prediction risk of the high-dimensional least squares estimator. We derive the central limit theorem for the prediction risk when both the sample size and the number of features tend to infinity.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Zeng Li , Chuanlong Xie , Qinwen Wang

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of a convex regression function $\phi_0$. We study the risk of the least squares estimator (LSE) under the natural squared error loss. We show that the risk is always bounded from above by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-10 Adityanand Guntuboyina , Bodhisattva Sen

In machine learning, the loss functions optimized during training often differ from the target loss that defines task performance due to computational intractability or lack of differentiability. We present an in-depth study of the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Yutao Zhong

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-08 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Joaquín Míguez

This work performs a non-asymptotic analysis of the generalized Lasso under the assumption of sub-exponential data. Our main results continue recent research on the benchmark case of (sub-)Gaussian sample distributions and thereby explore…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Martin Genzel , Christian Kipp

The aim of this note is to state a couple of general results about the properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimators (pMLE) and of the posterior distribution for parametric models in a non-asymptotic setup and for possibly large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-13 Vladimir Spokoiny

In the context of linear regression, we construct a data-driven convex loss function with respect to which empirical risk minimisation yields optimal asymptotic variance in the downstream estimation of the regression coefficients. At the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-29 Oliver Y. Feng , Yu-Chun Kao , Min Xu , Richard J. Samworth

We study strong universal Bayes-consistency in the realizable setting for learning with general metric losses, extending classical characterizations beyond $0$-$1$ classification (Bousquet et al., 2020; Hanneke et al., 2021) and real-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Dan Tsir Cohen , Steve Hanneke , Aryeh Kontorovich

We consider a regression framework where the design points are deterministic and the errors possibly non-i.i.d. and heavy-tailed (with a moment of order $p$ in $[1,2]$). Given a class of candidate regression functions, we propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Yannick Baraud , Guillaume Maillard

We study the problem of $(\epsilon,\delta)$-differentially private learning of linear predictors with convex losses. We provide results for two subclasses of loss functions. The first case is when the loss is smooth and non-negative but not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Raman Arora , Raef Bassily , Cristóbal Guzmán , Michael Menart , Enayat Ullah

We study theoretical properties of regularized robust M-estimators, applicable when data are drawn from a sparse high-dimensional linear model and contaminated by heavy-tailed distributions and/or outliers in the additive errors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-05 Po-Ling Loh

We consider the lossless compression bound of any individual data sequence. If we fit the data by a parametric model, the entropy quantity $nH({\hat \theta}_n)$ obtained by plugging in the maximum likelihood estimate is an underestimate of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Lei M Li

The classical parametric and semiparametric Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) results are reconsidered in a non-classical setup allowing finite samples and model misspecification. In the case of a finite dimensional nuisance parameter we obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-24 Maxim Panov , Vladimir Spokoiny

We consider the estimation of a bounded regression function with nonparametric heteroscedastic noise and random design. We study the true and empirical excess risks of the least-squares estimator on finite-dimensional vector spaces. We give…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-29 Adrien Saumard