Related papers: Efficient Reconstructions of Common Era Climate vi…

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…

This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar…

Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…

We address in this paper a new approach for fitting spatiotemporal models with application in disease mapping using the interaction types 1,2,3, and 4. When we account for the spatiotemporal interactions in disease-mapping models, inference…

This study explores integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with idealised climate models to address key parameterisation challenges in climate science. Current climate models rely on complex mathematical parameterisations to represent…

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…

We propose a novel approach for reconstructing annual temperatures in East Asia from 1368 to 1911, leveraging the Reconstructed East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series (REACHES). The lack of instrumental data during this period poses…

This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…

How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

This work extends the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method to latent models outside the scope of latent Gaussian models, where independent components of the latent field can have a near-Gaussian distribution. The proposed…

Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…

The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…

Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is…

We introduce a new copula-based correction for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) within the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models. While INLA is usually…

Accurate maps of past land cover and human land-use are necessary when studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate. Ideally the maps of past land cover would be separated into naturally occurring vegetation and human…

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…