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This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-22 Pascal Michaillat , Emmanuel Saez

This paper continues the examination of inventory control in which the inventory is modelled by a diffusion process and a long-term average cost criterion is used to make decisions. The class of such models under consideration have general…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-10 Kurt L. Helmes , Richard H. Stockbridge , Chao Zhu

Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-07-27 Marco Bardoscia

Financial markets have long since been modeled using stochastic methods such as Brownian motion, and more recently, rough volatility models have been built using fractional Brownian motion. This fractional aspect brings memory into the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-01 Patrick Geraghty

We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-09-07 Fabio Caccioli , Thomas A. Catanach , J. Doyne Farmer

Do firm dynamics matter for the transmission of monetary policy? Empirically, the startup rate declines following a monetary contraction, while the exit rate increases, both of which reduce aggregate employment. I present a model that…

General Economics · Economics 2020-11-09 Matthew Read

This paper develops a dynamic internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking. It considers public operational losses arising from internal fraud in retail banking within a group of international banks. Additionally, the model…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-11 Rocío Paredes , Marco Vega

Inspired by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and its consequences on the global financial system, we develop a simple model in which the Lehman default event is quantified as having an almost immediate effect in worsening the credit…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-18 Paweł Sieczka , Didier Sornette , Janusz A. Hołyst

The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-11-20 Dimitri O. Ledenyov , Viktor O. Ledenyov

Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Kunal Rai , Archi Roy , Itai Dattner , Soudeep Deb

Organizations use cash management models to control balances to both avoid overdrafts and obtain a profit from short-term investments. Most management models are based on control bounds which are derived from the assumption of a particular…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Francisco Salas-Molina

In this paper we introduce a generalized extension of the Eisenberg-Noe model of financial contagion to allow for time dynamics of the interbank liabilities, including a dynamic examination of default risk. This framework separates the cash…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-28 Tathagata Banerjee , Alex Bernstein , Zachary Feinstein

Empirical economists are often deterred from the application of fixed effects binary choice models mainly for two reasons: the incidental parameter problem and the computational challenge even in moderately large panels. Using the example…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-27 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann

Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory cannot account for this pattern unless under restrictive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Qingyin Ma , Xinxi Song , Alexis Akira Toda

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Marco Ioffredi , Stefano Marmi , Matteo Tanzi

In a New Keynesian model where the trade-off between stabilising the aggregate inflation rate and the output gap arises from sectoral asymmetries, the gains from commitment are either zero or negligible. Thus, to the extent that economic…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-08-28 Juan Paez-Farrell

Regulatory stress tests have become one of the main tools for setting capital requirements at the largest U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve uses confidential models to evaluate bank-specific outcomes for bank-specific portfolios in shared…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-15 Paul Glasserman , Mike Li

It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-17 Yoshiharu Maeno , Kenji Nishiguchi , Satoshi Morinaga , Hirokazu Matsushima

This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-27 Stefan Tappe , Thorsten Schmidt

We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system.…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-25 Opeoluwa Banwo , Fabio Caccioli , Paul Harrald , Francesca Medda