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We introduce Coarse-Grained Nonlinear Dynamics, an efficient and universal parameterization of nonlinear system dynamics based on the Volterra series expansion. These models require a number of parameters only quasilinear in the system's…

We investigate the probabilistic and analytic properties of Volterra processes constructed as pathwise integrals of deterministic kernels with respect to the H\"older continuous trajectories of Hilbert-valued Gaussian processes. To this…

A new concept, called quasi-linear transfer functions (QLTF), which can be used to characterize the output frequency behaviour of nonlinear systems, is introduced based on the well-known Volterra series representation. By using the new…

In this contribution we describe an approach to evolve composite covariance functions for Gaussian processes using genetic programming. A critical aspect of Gaussian processes and similar kernel-based models such as SVM is, that the…

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…

We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method to learn translation-invariant relationships on non-Euclidean domains. The resulting graph convolutional Gaussian processes can be applied to problems in machine learning for which the input…

In this paper, the regularization approach introduced recently for nonparametric estimation of linear systems is extended to the estimation of nonlinear systems modelled as Volterra series. The kernels of order higher than one, representing…

We introduce a new class of nonstationary kernels, which we derive as covariance functions of a novel family of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs). We construct string GPs to allow for multiple types…

Geophysical and other natural processes often exhibit non-stationary covariances and this feature is important to take into account for statistical models that attempt to emulate the physical process. A convolution-based model is used to…

The asymptotic analysis of covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes has been subject to intensive investigation. However, this asymptotic analysis is very scarce for non-Gaussian processes. In this paper, we study a class of…

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the…

Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data,…

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…

Understanding and predicting environmental phenomena often requires the construction of spatio-temporal statistical models, which are typically Gaussian processes. A common assumption made on Gaussian processes is that of covariance…