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Related papers: Efficient Non-parametric Bayesian Hawkes Processes

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We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-02 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We investigate the nonparametric estimation problem of the density $\pi$, representing the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional system $\left(Z_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}=\left(X_t, \lambda_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}$. In this system, $X$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-26 Yingxiang Yang , Jalal Etesami , Niao He , Negar Kiyavash

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Gaussian processes offers a convenient way to perform nonparametric reconstructions of observational data assuming only a kernel which describes the covariance between neighbouring points in a data set. We approach the ambiguity in the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-08-17 Reginald Christian Bernardo , Jackson Levi Said

This paper addresses nonparametric estimation of nonlinear multivariate Hawkes processes, where the interaction functions are assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Motivated by applications in neuroscience, the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and -- for each component process -- the number of points in each bin is counted. The distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Matthias Kirchner

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-20 Frederic Paik Schoenberg

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith

Recently nonparametric functional model with functional responses has been proposed within the functional reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (fRKHS) framework. Motivated by its superior performance and also its limitations, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-11 Heng Lian

In recent years, there has been a growing demand to discern clusters of subjects in datasets characterized by a large set of features. Often, these clusters may be highly variable in size and present partial hierarchical structures. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Lorenzo Schiavon , Mattia Stival

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

A compound Poisson process whose parameters are all unknown is observed at finitely many equispaced times. Nonparametric estimators of the jump and L\'evy distributions are proposed and functional central limit theorems using the uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-06 Alberto J. Coca

In supervised learning, the output variable to be predicted is often represented as a function, such as a spectrum or probability distribution. Despite its importance, functional output regression remains relatively unexplored. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-19 Minoru Kusaba , Megumi Iwayama , Ryo Yoshida