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Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

We propose a novel structural estimation framework in which we train a surrogate of an economic model with deep neural networks. Our methodology alleviates the curse of dimensionality and speeds up the evaluation and parameter estimation by…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-19 Hui Chen , Antoine Didisheim , Simon Scheidegger

We study an extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model that incorporates rough volatility and jump clustering phenomena. In our model, named the rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model, the spot variance is a rough…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-25 Alessandro Bondi , Sergio Pulido , Simone Scotti

The Bass local volatility model introduced by Backhoff-Veraguas, Beiglb\"ock, Huesmann, and K\"allblad is a Markov model perfectly calibrated to vanilla options at finitely many maturities, that approximates the Dupire local volatility…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-31 Beatrice Acciaio , Antonio Marini , Gudmund Pammer

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-10 Leonardo N. Ferreira , Haroon Mumtaz , Ana Skoblar

In order to overcome the drawbacks of assuming deterministic volatility coefficients in the standard LIBOR market models to capture volatility smiles and skews in real markets, several extensions of LIBOR models to incorporate stochastic…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-06 A. M. Ferreiro , J. A. García , J. G. López-Salas , C. Vázquez

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-10 Hans Buehler , Blanka Horvath , Yannick Limmer , Thorsten Schmidt

The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-25 Trong-Nghia Nguyen , Minh-Ngoc Tran , David Gunawan , R. Kohn

We propose a method to bound the expectation of the supremum of the price process in stochastic volatility models. It can be applied, for example, to the rough Bergomi model, avoiding the need to discuss finiteness of higher moments. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Stefan Gerhold , Julian Pachschwöll , Johannes Ruf

Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Matthias Otto

Motivated by empirical evidence for rough volatility models, this paper investigates continuous-time mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection under the Volterra Heston model. Due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-30 Bingyan Han , Hoi Ying Wong

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-06 Tetsuya Takaishi

In this paper we propose a novel pricing-hedging framework for volatility derivatives which simultaneously takes into account rough volatility and volatility jumps. Our model directly targets the instantaneous variance of a risky asset and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-30 Liang Wang , Weixuan Xia

In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of continuous stochastic volatility models, discussing their historical development and the key stylized facts that have driven the field. Special attention is dedicated to fractional and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-22 Giulia Di Nunno , Kęstutis Kubilius , Yuliya Mishura , Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko

We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-20 Yuhao Liu , Pingping Jiang , Gongqiu Zhang

This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

This paper investigates the continuous-time limit of score-driven models with long memory. By extending score-driven models to incorporate infinite-lag structures with coefficients exhibiting heavy-tailed decay, we establish their weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Yinhao Wu , Ping He

In the first part of this thesis, we focus on American options in the Heston model. We first give an analytical characterization of the value function of an American option as the unique solution of the associated (degenerate) parabolic…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-13 Giulia Terenzi

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-18 Chen Liu , Chao Wang , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn

American put options are among the most frequently traded single stock options, and their calibration is computationally challenging since no closed-form expression is available. Due to the higher flexibility in comparison to European…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Olena Burkovska , Kathrin Glau , Mirco Mahlstedt , Barbara Wohlmuth