Related papers: Consistency and Computation of Regularized MLEs fo…

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…

Integral projection models (IPMs) are widely used to study population growth and the dynamics of demographic structure (e.g. age and size distributions) within a population.These models use data on individuals' growth, survival, and…

While recent work has shown that scores from models trained by the ubiquitous masked language modeling (MLM) objective effectively discriminate probable from improbable sequences, it is still an open question if these MLMs specify a…

An intrinsic problem of classifiers based on machine learning (ML) methods is that their learning time grows as the size and complexity of the training dataset increases. For this reason, it is important to have efficient computational…

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at both forecasting tasks, and at quantifying the uncertainty associated with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Multivariate…

Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and control variate estimators (CVE) have been used in conjunction with known information across sketching algorithms and applications in machine learning. We prove that under certain conditions in an…

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of…

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

A fundamental question in the field of molecular computation is what computational tasks a biochemical system can carry out. In this work, we focus on the problem of finding the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for log-affine models. We…

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

The rapid development of AI-generated content (AIGC) technology has led to the misuse of highly realistic AI-generated images (AIGI) in spreading misinformation, posing a threat to public information security. Although existing AIGI…

The controlled branching process is a generalization of the classical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson branching process. It is a useful model for describing the evolution of populations in which the population size at each generation needs to be…

We show how the random coefficient logistic demand (BLP) model can be phrased as an automatically differentiable moment function, including the incorporation of numerical safeguards proposed in the literature. This allows gradient-based…

Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective.…

Bayesian phylogenetic methods are generating noticeable enthusiasm in the field of molecular systematics. Many phylogenetic models are often at stake and different approaches are used to compare them within a Bayesian framework. The Bayes…

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…

In the Admixture Model, the probability of an individual having a certain number of alleles at a specific marker depends on the allele frequencies in $K$ ancestral populations and the fraction of the individual's genome originating from…