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In this paper we introduce a novel way of estimating prediction uncertainty in deep networks through the use of uncertainty surrogates. These surrogates are features of the penultimate layer of a deep network that are forced to match…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-19 Radhakrishna Achanta , Natasa Tagasovska

Mechanistic simulation models are inverted against observations in order to gain inference on modeled processes. However, with the increasing ability to collect high resolution observations, these observations represent more patterns of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-20 Thomas Wutzler

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-31 Gonzalo Rios

Offline design optimization problem arises in numerous science and engineering applications including material and chemical design, where expensive online experimentation necessitates the use of in silico surrogate functions to predict and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Minh Hoang , Azza Fadhel , Aryan Deshwal , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Trong Nghia Hoang

Numerical simulations are crucial for modeling complex systems, but calibrating them becomes challenging when data are noisy or incomplete and likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive. Bayesian calibration offers an interesting…

In many areas of the observational and experimental sciences data is scarce. Data observation in high-energy astrophysics is disrupted by celestial occlusions and limited telescope time while data derived from laboratory experiments in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-28 Ryan-Rhys Griffiths

We describe GTApprox - a new tool for medium-scale surrogate modeling in industrial design. Compared to existing software, GTApprox brings several innovations: a few novel approximation algorithms, several advanced methods of automated…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2016-09-06 Mikhail Belyaev , Evgeny Burnaev , Ermek Kapushev , Maxim Panov , Pavel Prikhodko , Dmitry Vetrov , Dmitry Yarotsky

In this work, we employ the Bayesian inference framework to solve the problem of estimating the solution and particularly, its derivatives, which satisfy a known differential equation, from the given noisy and scarce observations of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-09 Hongqiao Wang , Xiang Zhou

We propose a new approach for building recommender systems by adapting surrogate-assisted interactive genetic algorithms. A pool of user-evaluated items is used to construct an approximative model which serves as a surrogate fitness…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Thomas Gabor , Philipp Altmann

Numerous algorithms have been proposed for detecting anomalies (outliers, novelties) in an unsupervised manner. Unfortunately, it is not trivial, in general, to understand why a given sample (record) is labelled as an anomaly and thus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Nikolaos Myrtakis , Ioannis Tsamardinos , Vassilis Christophides

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-08 Paul Westermann , Ralph Evins

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-16 D. Andrew Brown , Peter Kiessler , John Nicholson

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-29 Anjishnu Banerjee , David Dunson , Surya Tokdar

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric Bayesian models that are widely used for diverse prediction tasks. Previous work in adding strong privacy protection to GPs via differential privacy (DP) has been limited to protecting only the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-12 Antti Honkela , Laila Melkas

A systematic approach based on the principles of supervised learning and design of experiments concepts is introduced to build a surrogate model for estimating the optical properties of fractal aggregates. The surrogate model is built on…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are widely used in research for their ability to model correlated outcomes with non-Gaussian conditional distributions. The proper selection of fixed and random effects is a critical part of the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-18 Hillary M. Heiling , Naim U. Rashid , Quefeng Li , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi

Learning data representations under uncertainty is an important task that emerges in numerous scientific computing and data analysis applications. However, uncertainty quantification techniques are computationally intensive and become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Paz Fink Shustin , Shashanka Ubaru , Małgorzata J. Zimoń , Songtao Lu , Vasileios Kalantzis , Lior Horesh , Haim Avron

The proposed method, Discriminator Guidance, aims to improve sample generation of pre-trained diffusion models. The approach introduces a discriminator that gives explicit supervision to a denoising sample path whether it is realistic or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Dongjun Kim , Yeongmin Kim , Se Jung Kwon , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

Multidisciplinary design optimization methods aim at adapting numerical optimization techniques to the design of engineering systems involving multiple disciplines. In this context, a large number of mixed continuous, integer and…

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