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We consider a deterministic game with alternate moves and complete information, of which the issue is always the victory of one of the two opponents. We assume that this game is the realization of a random model enjoying some independence…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier

We construct the maximally predictable portfolio (MPP) of stocks using machine learning. Solving for the optimal constrained weights in the multi-asset MPP gives portfolios with a high monthly coefficient of determination, given the sample…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-06 Michael Pinelis , David Ruppert

Portfolio optimization is a ubiquitous problem in financial mathematics that relies on accurate estimates of covariance matrices for asset returns. However, estimates of pairwise covariance could be better and calculating time-sensitive…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-12 James S. Cummins , Natalia G. Berloff

This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimization, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study's novelty is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Qingliang Fan , Marcelo C. Medeiros , Hanming Yang , Songshan Yang

We consider the classical question of predicting binary sequences and study the {\em optimal} algorithms for obtaining the best possible regret and payoff functions for this problem. The question turns out to be also equivalent to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-05-08 Alexandr Andoni , Rina Panigrahy

This paper studies the robust optimal gain selection problem for financial trading systems, formulated within a \emph{double linear policy} framework, which allocates capital across long and short positions. The key objective is to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-20 Chung-Han Hsieh

We present a universal algorithm for online trading in Stock Market which performs asymptotically at least as good as any stationary trading strategy that computes the investment at each step using a fixed function of the side information…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-05 Vladimir V'yugin , Vladimir Trunov

This paper addresses a novel \emph{cost-sensitive} distributionally robust log-optimal portfolio problem, where the investor faces \emph{ambiguous} return distributions, and a general convex transaction cost model is incorporated. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-01 Chung-Han Hsieh , Xiao-Rou Yu

This paper studies a sequential decision problem where payoff distributions are known and where the riskiness of payoffs matters. Equivalently, it studies sequential choice from a repeated set of independent lotteries. The decision-maker is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-02 Zengjing Chen , Larry G. Epstein , Guodong Zhang

We consider a time-consistent mean-variance portfolio selection problem of an insurer and allow for the incorporation of basis (mortality) risk. The optimal solution is identified with a Nash subgame perfect equilibrium. We characterize an…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-16 Frank Bosserhoff , Mitja Stadje

We consider derivatives written on multiple underlyings in a one-period financial market, and we are interested in the computation of model-free upper and lower bounds for their arbitrage-free prices. We work in a completely realistic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-13 Ariel Neufeld , Antonis Papapantoleon , Qikun Xiang

A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-02-01 Yoram Singer

We consider a portfolio with call option and the corresponding underlying asset under the standard assumption that stock-market price represents a random variable with lognormal distribution. Minimizing the variance (hedging risk) of the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-27 Vladimir Nikulin

In this paper the problem of optimal derivative design, profit maximization and risk minimization under adverse selection when multiple agencies compete for the business of a continuum of heterogenous agents is studied. The presence of ties…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2011-07-06 Ulrich Horst , Santiago Moreno-Bromberg

Optimal behavior in (competitive) situation is traditionally determined with the help of utility functions that measure the payoff of different actions. Given an ordering on the space of revenues (payoffs), the classical axiomatic approach…

General Economics · Economics 2020-04-27 Stefan Rass

Expanding the ideas of the author's paper 'Nonexpansive maps and option pricing theory' (Kibernetica 34:6 (1998), 713-724) we develop a pure game-theoretic approach to option pricing, by-passing stochastic modeling. Risk neutral…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Vassili Kolokoltsov

We develop a new analysis for portfolio optimisation with options, tackling the three fundamental issues with this problem: asymmetric options' distributions, high dimensionality and dependence structure. To do so, we propose a new…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-10 Jonathan Raimana Chan , Thomas Huckle , Antoine Jacquier , Aitor Muguruza

This paper investigates the optimal hedging strategies of an informed broker interacting with multiple traders in a financial market. We develop a theoretical framework in which the broker, possessing exclusive information about the drift…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-11 Philippe Bergault , Pierre Cardaliaguet , Wenbin Yan

It is well-known that using delta hedging to hedge financial options is not feasible in practice. Traders often rely on discrete-time hedging strategies based on fixed trading times or fixed trading prices (i.e., trades only occur if the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Cheng Cai , Tiziano De Angelis , Jan Palczewski

The paper studies problem of continuous time optimal portfolio selection for a incom- plete market diffusion model. It is shown that, under some mild conditions, near optimal strategies for investors with different performance criteria can…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-04-15 Nikolai Dokuchaev