Related papers: On-site surrogates for large-scale calibration

Physics simulations have become fundamental tools to study myriad engineering systems. As physics simulations often involve simplifications, their outputs should be calibrated using real-world data. In this paper, we present a…

Multiscale simulations utilizing high-fidelity, microscopic Monte Carlo models to provide the nonlinear response for continuum models can easily become computationally intractable. Surrogate models for the high-fidelity Monte Carlo models…

Identifying parameters of computational models from experimental data, or model calibration, is fundamental for assessing and improving the predictability and reliability of computer simulations. In this work, we propose a method for…

The paper addresses Bayesian inferences in inverse problems with uncertainty quantification involving a computationally expensive forward map associated with solving a partial differential equations. To mitigate the computational cost, the…

Monte Carlo simulation is often used for the reliability assessment of power systems, but it converges slowly when the system is complex. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) can be applied to speed up computation without compromises on model…

The development of a reliable and robust surrogate model is often constrained by the dimensionality of the problem. For a system with high-dimensional inputs/outputs (I/O), conventional approaches usually use a low-dimensional manifold to…

The analysis of computer models can be aided by the construction of surrogate models, or emulators, that statistically model the numerical computer model. Increasingly, computer models are becoming stochastic, yielding different outputs…

Performing reliability analysis on complex systems is often computationally expensive. In particular, when dealing with systems having high input dimensionality, reliability estimation becomes a daunting task. A popular approach to overcome…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

We present calypso, a parameter-conditioned stochastic surrogate model for circumbinary accretion flows. We represent the total and individual accretion time series in a PCA basis and model the resulting coefficients as draws from a…

In many practical cases, a sensitivity analysis or an optimization of a complex time consuming computer code requires to build a fast running approximation of it - also called surrogate model. We consider in this paper the problem of…

Polynomial chaos and Gaussian process emulation are methods for surrogate-based uncertainty quantification, and have been developed independently in their respective communities over the last 25 years. Despite tackling similar problems in…

Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces…

In this paper we introduce JuliaSim, a high-performance programming environment designed to blend traditional modeling and simulation with machine learning. JuliaSim can build accelerated surrogates from component-based models, such as…

The increase in complexity of autonomous systems is accompanied by a need of data-driven development and validation strategies. Advances in computer graphics and cloud clusters have opened the way to massive parallel high fidelity…

We tackle the problem of quantifying failure probabilities for expensive deterministic computer experiments with stochastic inputs under a fixed budget. The computational cost of the computer simulation prohibits direct Monte Carlo (MC) and…

We propose a novel \textit{capsule} based deep encoder-decoder model for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of systems in mechanics from sparse data. The proposed framework is developed by adapting Capsule Network (CapsNet)…

As human-robot interaction (HRI) systems advance, so does the difficulty of evaluating and understanding the strengths and limitations of these systems in different environments and with different users. To this end, previous methods have…

The Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) framework enables the construction of surrogate models of complex nonlinear and high-dimensional systems, facilitating efficient stability and performance analysis together with controller design. Despite…

Systematic exploration of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is challenged by the curse of dimensionality and their inherent stochasticity. We present a multi-stage pipeline integrating the systematic design of experiments with machine learning…