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In a growing renewable based energy system, accurate and reliable wind power forecasts are crucial for grid stability, balancing supply and demand and market risk management. Even though short-term weather forecasts have been thoroughly…
Model predictive control (MPC) has become the most widely used advanced control method in process industry. In many cases, forecasts of the disturbances are available, e.g., predicted renewable power generation based on weather forecast.…
Accurate short-term solar and wind power predictions play an important role in the planning and operation of power systems. However, the short-term power prediction of renewable energy has always been considered a complex regression…
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…
Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within…
Flash flooding is a significant societal problem, but related precipitation forecasts are often poor. To address this, one can try to use output from convection-parametrising (global) ensembles, post-processed to forecast at point-scale, or…
White light images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are projections on the plane-of-sky (POS). As a result, CME kinematics are subject to projection effects. The error in the true (deprojected) speed of CMEs is one of the main causes of…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…
The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…
We show that radiative cooling profiles, when described in temperature coordinates, are insensitive to surface temperature $T_s$. We argue this theoretically as well as confirm it in cloud-resolving simulations of radiative convective…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
This work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe convective storm environments, building off of the two-layer static energy framework developed in Agard and Emanuel (2017). The model is…
Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative…
The Burning Index (BI) produced daily by the United States government's National Fire Danger Rating System is commonly used in forecasting the hazard of wildfire activity in the United States. However, recent evaluations have shown the BI…
Climate sensitivity has remained stubbornly uncertain since the Charney Report was published some 45 years ago. Two factors in future climate projections could alter this dilemma: (i) an increased ratio of CO$_2$ forcing relative to aerosol…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunication, satellite network disruptions, power grid…