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We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…
Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to…
This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are applied to multi-level Finite Element (FE) discretizations of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) with a random coefficient, to estimate expected values of linear functionals of the solution.…
One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…
We present a multilevel Monte Carlo simulation method for analysing multi-scale physical systems via a hierarchy of coarse-grained representations, to obtain numerically-exact results, at the most detailed level. We apply the method to a…
In this paper the application of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method on numerical simulations of turbulent flows with uncertain parameters is investigated. Several strategies for setting up the MLMC method are presented, and the…
We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…
Discrete-state, continuous-time Markov models are becoming commonplace in the modelling of biochemical processes. The mathematical formulations that such models lead to are opaque, and, due to their complexity, are often considered…
Monte Carlo (MC) methods for numerical integration seem to be embarassingly parallel on first sight. When adaptive schemes are applied in order to enhance convergence however, the seemingly most natural way of replicating the whole job on…
This chapter is devoted to the computation of equilibrium (thermodynamic) properties of quantum systems. In particular, we will be interested in the situation where the interaction between particles is so strong that it cannot be treated as…
In this paper we investigate the approximation properties of the coarse-graining procedure applied to kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of lattice stochastic dynamics. We provide both analytical and numerical evidence that the hierarchy of…
The rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model, introduced recently in [5], is a promising rough volatility model in quantitative finance. It is a parsimonious model depending on only three parameters, and yet remarkably fits with empirical implied…
We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…
Conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) has been widely used for sensitivity estimation with discontinuous integrands as a standard simulation technique. A major limitation of using CMC in this context is that finding conditioning variables to ensure…
Adaptive and interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) have been recently introduced in the literature. These novel simulation algorithms are designed to increase the simulation efficiency to sample complex distributions.…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods are widely used to assess parametric uncertainties of hydrologic models conditioned on measurements of observable state variables. However, when the model is CPU-intensive and…
The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…
Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…