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Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Patrick Schwab , Lorenz Linhardt , Stefan Bauer , Joachim M. Buhmann , Walter Karlen

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Models that learn spurious correlations from training data often fail when deployed in new environments. While many methods aim to learn invariant representations to address this, they often underperform standard empirical risk minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ruqi Bai , Yao Ji , Zeyu Zhou , David I. Inouye

This work presents CounterNet, a novel end-to-end learning framework which integrates Machine Learning (ML) model training and the generation of corresponding counterfactual (CF) explanations into a single end-to-end pipeline.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Hangzhi Guo , Thanh Hong Nguyen , Amulya Yadav

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Emily Black , Zifan Wang , Matt Fredrikson , Anupam Datta

Modern neural language models that are widely used in various NLP tasks risk memorizing sensitive information from their training data. Understanding this memorization is important in real world applications and also from a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Chiyuan Zhang , Daphne Ippolito , Katherine Lee , Matthew Jagielski , Florian Tramèr , Nicholas Carlini

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Estimating an individual's potential response to interventions from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy or economics. In this setting, it is often the case that combinations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Sonali Parbhoo , Stefan Bauer , Patrick Schwab

Although multi-view learning has made signifificant progress over the past few decades, it is still challenging due to the diffificulty in modeling complex correlations among different views, especially under the context of view missing. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Changqing Zhang , Yajie Cui , Zongbo Han , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Huazhu Fu , Qinghua Hu

We propose a novel training regime termed counterfactual training that leverages counterfactual explanations to increase the explanatory capacity of models. Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular post-hoc explanation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Patrick Altmeyer , Aleksander Buszydlik , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Christopher B. Boyer , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jon A. Steingrimsson

Counterfactuals are a popular framework for interpreting machine learning predictions. These what if explanations are notoriously challenging to create for computer vision models: standard gradient-based methods are prone to produce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Jeremy Goldwasser , Giles Hooker

We propose a matching method that recovers direct treatment effects from randomized experiments where units are connected in an observed network, and units that share edges can potentially influence each others' outcomes. Traditional…

In recent years, fairness has become an important topic in the machine learning research community. In particular, counterfactual fairness aims at building prediction models which ensure fairness at the most individual level. Rather than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Vincent Grari , Sylvain Lamprier , Marcin Detyniecki

Most machine learning (ML) models are developed for prediction only; offering no option for causal interpretation of their predictions or parameters/properties. This can hamper the health systems' ability to employ ML models in clinical…

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