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Scientists need to compare the support for models based on observed phenomena. The main goal of the evidential paradigm is to quantify the strength of evidence in the data for a reference model relative to an alternative model. This is done…

The likelihood function plays a pivotal role in statistical inference; it is adaptable to a wide range of models and the resultant estimators are known to have good properties. However, these results hinge on correct specification of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Adam Jaeger , Nicole Lazar

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-24 Noam Finkelstein , Roy Adams , Suchi Saria , Ilya Shpitser

Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer

Integrating non-probability samples into finite-population inference typically requires modeling unknown selection probabilities under a missing-at-random (MAR) assumption that is difficult to verify. We propose a design-based alternative…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andrius Čiginas , Ieva Burakauskaitė , Jae Kwang Kim

We consider an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations when some components of the random observations are subject to missingness. As the nature of the estimating equations is wide-ranging, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-05 Dong Wang , Song Xi Chen

Cross-validation is one of the most popular model selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross validation methods tend to select overfitting models, due to the ignorance of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-25 Jing Lei

Results on approximate deduction in the context of the calculus of evidence of Dempster-Shafer and the theory of interval probabilities are reported. Approximate conditional knowledge about the truth of conditional propositions was assumed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Enrique H. Ruspini

Constructing tests or confidence regions that control over the error rates in the long-run is probably one of the most important problem in statistics. Yet, the theoretical justification for most methods in statistics is asymptotic. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-23 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser

Statistical inference after model selection requires an inference framework that takes the selection into account in order to be valid. Following recent work on selective inference, we derive analytical expressions for inference after…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-26 David Rügamer , Sonja Greven

Knowing the link between observed predictive variables and outcomes is crucial for making inference in any regression model. When this link is missing, partially or completely, classical estimation methods fail in recovering the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Jinyu Chen

In this paper we focus on providing sufficient conditions for some well-known stochastic orders in reliability but dealing with the discrete versions of them, filling a gap in the literature. In particular, we find conditions based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 F. Belzunce , C. Martínez-Riquelme , M. Pereda

Adequacy for estimation between an inferential method and a model can be de{\ldots}ned through two main requirements: {\ldots}rstly the inferential tool should de{\ldots}ne a well posed problem when applied to the model; secondly the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Michel Broniatowski , Justin Moutsouka

We present a class of models that, via a simple construction, enables exact, incremental, non-parametric, polynomial-time, Bayesian inference of conditional measures. The approach relies upon creating a sequence of covers on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-05-31 Christos Dimitrakakis

The goal of this paper is to provide some tools for nonparametric estimation and inference in psychological and economic experiments. We consider an experimental framework in which each of $n$subjects provides $T$ responses to a vector of…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-12-10 Raffaello Seri , Samuele Centorrino , Michele Bernasconi

The probabilities of causation are commonly used to solve decision-making problems. Tian and Pearl derived sharp bounds for the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Ang Li , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

Distributional models are derived from co-occurrences in a corpus, where only a small proportion of all possible plausible co-occurrences will be observed. This results in a very sparse vector space, requiring a mechanism for inferring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-08-25 Thomas Kober , Julie Weeds , Jeremy Reffin , David Weir

Missing covariates are not uncommon in capture-recapture studies. When covariate information is missing at random in capture-recapture data, an empirical full likelihood method has been demonstrated to outperform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Yang Liu , Yukun Liu , Pengfei Li , Riquan Zhang

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis
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