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Path-specific effects are a broad class of mediated effects from an exposure to an outcome via one or more causal pathways with respect to some subset of intermediate variables. The majority of the literature concerning estimation of…

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal policy rules are merely suggestions in the presence of human non-adherence to treatment recommendations. We study personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Angela Zhou

We present a deep learning-based approach to studying dynamic clinical behavioral regimes in diverse non-randomized healthcare settings. Our proposed methodology - deep causal behavioral policy learning (DC-BPL) - uses deep learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-06 Jonas Knecht , Anna Zink , Jonathan Kolstad , Maya Petersen

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Accurate models of clinical actions and their impacts on disease progression are critical for estimating personalized optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) in medical/health research, especially in managing chronic conditions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-19 William Hua , Hongyuan Mei , Sarah Zohar , Magali Giral , Yanxun Xu

Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments, where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Shosei Sakaguchi

A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules in which each decision rule recommends treatment based on features of patient medical history such as past treatments and outcomes. Existing methods for estimating optimal dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-22 Kristin A. Linn , Eric B. Laber , Leonard A. Stefanski

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-22 J Hoogland , O Efthimiou , TL Nguyen , TPA Debray

Path-specific effects in mediation analysis provide a useful tool for fairness analysis, which is mostly based on nested counterfactuals. However, the dictum ``no causation without manipulation'' implies that path-specific effects might be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Heyang Gong , Ke Zhu

When it comes to clinical survival trials, regulatory restrictions usually require the application of methods that solely utilize baseline covariates and the intention-to-treat principle. Thereby a lot of potentially useful information is…

There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-28 Daniel J. Luckett , Eric B. Laber , Michael R. Kosorok

There is a growing literature on finding so-called optimal treatment rules, which are rules by which to assign treatment to individuals based on an individual's characteristics, such that a desired outcome is maximized. A related goal…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

A treatment regime formalizes personalized medicine as a function from individual patient characteristics to a recommended treatment. A high-quality treatment regime can improve patient outcomes while reducing cost, resource consumption,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-30 Yichi Zhang , Eric B. Laber , Anastasios Tsiatis , Marie Davidian

Recent statistical and reinforcement learning methods have significantly advanced patient care strategies. However, these approaches face substantial challenges in high-stakes contexts, including missing data, inherent stochasticity, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Harsh Parikh , Quinn Lanners , Zade Akras , Sahar F. Zafar , M. Brandon Westover , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Tianchen Qian

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

Personalized healthcare decisions require reasoning about how physiological and behavioral variables influence an individual patient over time. Existing temporal causal discovery methods are poorly matched to this setting: cohort-level…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Elahe Khatibi , Ziyu Wang , Saba A. Farahani , Di Huang , Hung Cao , Ramesh Jain , Amir M. Rahmani