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Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses - rather than merely predicting responses - is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 David R. Burt , Renato Berlinghieri , Stephen Bates , Tamara Broderick

In an empirical Bayes analysis, we use data from repeated sampling to imitate inferences made by an oracle Bayesian with extensive knowledge of the data-generating distribution. Existing results provide a comprehensive characterization of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Stefan Wager

The need for small area estimates is increasingly felt in both the public and private sectors in order to formulate their strategic plans. It is now widely recognized that direct small area survey estimates are highly unreliable owing to…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-26 G. Datta , M. Ghosh

It is well known that if the power spectral density of a continuous time stationary stochastic process does not have a compact support, data sampled from that process at any uniform sampling rate leads to biased and inconsistent spectrum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-09 Radhendushka Srivastava , Debasis Sengupta

Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-16 Vitor Hadad , David A. Hirshberg , Ruohan Zhan , Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

In this paper, we provide a general methodology to draw statistical inferences on individual signal coordinates or linear combinations of them in sparse phase retrieval. Given an initial estimator for the targeting parameter (some simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Yisha Yao

When computing a confidence interval for a binomial proportion p one must choose between using an exact interval, which has a coverage probability of at least 1-{\alpha} for all values of p, and a shorter approximate interval, which may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-11 Måns Thulin

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) parameter estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. The key result of Efron (2014) is a very convenient and widely applicable formula for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-29 Paul Kabaila , Christeen Wijethunga

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-22 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

We present a new method in problems where estimates are needed for finite population domains with small or even zero sample sizes. In contrast to known estimation methods, an auxiliary information is used to model sizes of population units…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-23 Andrius Čiginas , Tomas Rudys

Standard random-effects meta-analysis methods perform poorly when applied to few studies only. Such settings however are commonly encountered in practice. It is unclear, whether or to what extent small-sample-size behaviour can be improved…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-15 Svenja E. Seide , Christian Röver , Tim Friede

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-08 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Carlos García Meixide , Michael R. Kosorok , Marcos Matabuena

Construction of tight confidence regions and intervals is central to statistical inference and decision making. This paper develops new theory showing minimum average volume confidence regions for categorical data. More precisely, consider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-01 Matthew L. Malloy , Ardhendu Tripathy , Robert D. Nowak

We propose and study three confidence intervals (CIs) centered at an estimator that is intentionally biased to reduce mean squared error. The first CI simply uses an unbiased estimator's standard error; compared to centering at the unbiased…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 David M. Kaplan , Xin Liu

Nonparametric two-stage procedures to construct fixed-width confidence intervals are studied to quantify uncertainty. It is shown that the validity of the random central limit theorem (RCLT) accompanied by a consistent and asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Yuan-Tsung Chang , Ansgar Steland

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Geoffrey S Johnson

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield