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We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-14 Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Wen Zhang

We obtain some optimal inequalities on tail probabilities for sums of independent bounded random variables. Our main result completes an upper bound on tail probabilities due to Talagrand by giving a one-term asymptotic expansion for large…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

In this paper we are concerned with a sample of asymptotically independent risks. Tail asymptotic probabilities for linear combinations of randomly weighted order statistics are approximated under various assumptions, where the individual…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-24 Alexandru V. Asimit , Enkelejd Hashorva , Dominik Kortschak

Let $X$ be an $n\times n$ symmetric random matrix with independent but non-identically distributed entries. The deviation inequalities of the spectral norm of $X$ with Gaussian entries have been obtained by using the standard concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Guozheng Dai , Zhonggen Su , Hanchao Wang

In this paper, we estimate the sparse dependence structure in the tail region of a multivariate random vector, potentially of high dimension. The tail dependence is modeled via a graphical model for extremes embedded in the H\"usler-Reiss…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Phyllis Wan , Chen Zhou

We consider two independent random variables with the given tail asymptotic (e.g. power or exponential). We find tail asymptotic for their sum and product. This is done by some cumbersome but purely technical computations and requires the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-09 Andrey Sarantsev

Let $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Dominyka Kievinaitė , Jonas Šiaulys

We discuss the possibilities and limitations of estimating the mean of a real-valued random variable from independent and identically distributed observations from a non-asymptotic point of view. In particular, we define estimators with a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-22 Luc Devroye , Matthieu Lerasle , Gabor Lugosi , Roberto I. Oliveira

We study the height and width of a Galton--Watson tree with offspring distribution B satisfying E(B)=1, 0 < Var(B) < infinity, conditioned on having exactly n nodes. Under this conditioning, we derive sub-Gaussian tail bounds for both the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Louigi Addario-Berry , Luc Devroye , Svante Janson

We prove new lower bounds for the upper tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. Unlike many existing bounds, our results are not asymptotic, but supply strong information when one is only a little into the upper tail. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-25 Adam J. Harper

We tackle the modeling of threshold exceedances in asymptotically independent stochastic processes by constructions based on Laplace random fields. These are defined as Gaussian random fields scaled with a stochastic variable following an…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-09 Thomas Opitz

This note presents sharp inequalities for deviation probability of a general quadratic form of a random vector \(\xiv\) with finite exponential moments. The obtained deviation bounds are similar to the case of a Gaussian random vector. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-08 Vladimir Spokoiny

In these notes, we investigate the tail behaviour of the norm of subgaussian vectors in a Hilbert space. The subgaussian variance proxy is given as a trace class operator, allowing for a precise control of the moments along each dimension…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-04 Mattes Mollenhauer , Claudia Schillings

The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-08 Abhik Ghosh

We consider two different portfolios of proportional reinsurance of the same pool of risks. This contribution is concerned with Gaussian-like risks, which means that for large values the survival function of such risks is, up to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-06 Julia Farkas , Enkelejd Hashorva

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Axel Bücher , Yeonjoon Choi , Katharina Effertz , Stanislav Volgushev

We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-27 Peter Tankov

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We discuss two-sided bounds for moments and tails of quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables with values in Banach spaces. We state a natural conjecture and show that it holds up to additional logarithmic factors. Moreover in a certain…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Radosław Adamczak , Rafał Latała , Rafał Meller

Quadratic variations of Gaussian processes play important role in both stochastic analysis and in applications such as estimation of model parameters, and for this reason the topic has been extensively studied in the literature. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-06 Lauri Viitasaari