Related papers: Time-consistent conditional expectation under prob…
We provide a general construction of time-consistent sublinear expectations on the space of continuous paths. It yields the existence of the conditional G-expectation of a Borel-measurable (rather than quasi-continuous) random variable, a…
In this study, we propose the sublinear expectation structure under countable state space. To describe an interesting "nonlinear randomized" trial, based on a convex compact domain, we introduce a family of probability measures under…
Distorted distributions were introduced in the context of actuarial science for several variety of insurance problems. In this paper we consider the quantile-based probabilistic mean value theorem given in Di Crescenzo et al. [4] and…
In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…
This work presents a complete geometrical characterisation of divisible and indivisible time-evolution at the level of probabilities for systems with two configurations, open or closed. Our new geometrical construction in the space of…
We derive sufficient conditions for the convex and monotonic g-stochastic ordering of diffusion processes under nonlinear g-expectations and g-evaluations. Our approach relies on comparison results for forward-backward stochastic…
Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…
We report an inconsistency found in probability theory (also referred to as measure-theoretic probability). For probability measures induced by real-valued random variables, we deduce an "equality" such that one side of the "equality" is a…
This paper introduces the notion of pseudo-independence on the sublinear expectation space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathcal{P})$ via the classical conditional expectation, and the relations between pseudo-independence and Peng's independence…
We study delay-independent stability in nonlinear models with a distributed delay which have a positive equilibrium. Such models frequently occur in population dynamics and other applications. In particular, we construct a relevant…
Recently, progress has been made in the theory of turbulence, which provides a framework on how a deterministic process changes to a stochastic one owing to the change in thermodynamic states. It is well known that, in the framework of…
We consider the problem of guessing the realization of a random variable but under more general Tsallis' non-extensive entropic framework rather than the classical Maxwell-Boltzman-Gibbs-Shannon framework. We consider both the conditional…
We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…
We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…
We develop nonlinear renewal theorems for a perturbed random walk without assuming stochastic boundedness of centered perturbation terms. A second order expansion of the expected stopping time is obtained via the uniform integrability of…
The paper introduces a novel topological method for prediction and modeling for a nonlinear time--series that exhibit recurring patterns. According to the model, global manifold of the reconstructed state--space can be approximated by a few…
Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…
Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…
In this paper, with the notion of independent identically distributed (IID) random variables under sublinear expectations introduced by Peng [7-9], we investigate moment bounds for IID sequences under sublinear expectations. We can obtain a…
Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…